Hull City 1-2 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hull City vs Peterborough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The MKM Stadium plays host to Hull City versus Peterborough in Championship, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Wednesday 20 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hull City have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The MKM Stadium, Hull City have gone 1W 2D 3L this season (6 games, 0.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Peterborough's overall Championship record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Peterborough away from home this season: 0W 0D 6L from 6 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Hull City, 0.50 for Peterborough — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
Peterborough half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Hull City 25% | Peterborough 42%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 25% | Peterborough 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.51 xG and Peterborough 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.783 / defence 1.272 | Peterborough attack 0.609 / defence 1.820. League average goals — home 1.063 / away 1.116. Hull City's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.51 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Peterborough bring a strong defensive rating of 1.820 — this is suppressing Hull City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Hull City games / 12 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 52% | Draw 28% | Peterborough 21%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 1.92 | Draw 3.57 | Peterborough 4.76. Hull City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 33% | Peterborough 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Peterborough | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 52% | Draw 28% | Peterborough 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Hull City 1.51 / Peterborough 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.783 / def 1.272 | Peterborough attack 0.609 / def 1.820 | league avg home 1.063 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Hull City (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Peterborough xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Peterborough kick off?
Hull City vs Peterborough kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 20 October 2021 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Peterborough?
Hull City 1 - 2 Peterborough.
Where is Hull City vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Peterborough part of?
Hull City vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 52% chance of winning, Peterborough a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Hull City and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Peterborough?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hull City and Peterborough in?
Hull City (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Peterborough (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hull City's attack at 0.78x the league average against Peterborough's defence at 1.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Peterborough's attack (0.61x) against Hull City's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
52%
1.94
28%
3.58
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.38
0.86
Peterborough xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
22%
4.61
5%
22.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Hull City and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Hull City and 0.86 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hull City come into this having played 12 games, going 2W 3D 7L for 0.75 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Peterborough sit at 0.67 PPG from 12 outings (2W 2D 8L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.75 PPG for Hull City against 0.67 for Peterborough. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Hull City's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Peterborough have taken 0.00 points per game from 6 outings (0W 0D 6L). That's a step down from their 0.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Peterborough's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hull City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hull City are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.00 scored and 2.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
Peterborough
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 2W 3D 7L in their last 12 games (0.75 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 2W 2D 8L in their last 12 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Peterborough away?
Hull City's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 0.83 PPG; Peterborough away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Hull City
0
Draws
1
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Peterborough?
From 2 meetings on record, Hull City have won 1, Peterborough have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2022, when Peterborough 0-3 Hull City.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hull City see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Peterborough see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Hull City) and 33% (Peterborough) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Hull City) and 67% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: Hull City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hull City have failed to score in 50% of games; Peterborough in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Peterborough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Hull City's recent matches and 33% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Hull City's recent games and 67% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Peterborough defy the odds to beat Hull City 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Hull City 1-2 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.51 xG and Peterborough 0.86 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Peterborough outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.78 / defence 1.27 against Peterborough attack 0.61 / defence 1.82, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 52% | Draw 28% | Peterborough 21%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Peterborough win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 25%, Peterborough 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Peterborough's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 0.75 PPG, Peterborough 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.