Hull City 0-2 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ipswich at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hull City vs Ipswich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hull City host Ipswich at MKM Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 25 November 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Hull City — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at MKM Stadium, Hull City have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Ipswich have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ipswich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ipswich's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hull City at 1.70 PPG versus Ipswich's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Hull City have won 0, Ipswich 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hull City in-play and half-time data (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 96% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Ipswich in-play and half-time data (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 57% versus Ipswich 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 42% | Ipswich 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.58 xG and Ipswich 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 1.214 / defence 1.106 | Ipswich attack 1.287 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.215. Ipswich have an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 62 Hull City games / 15 Ipswich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 35% | Draw 23% | Ipswich 42%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | Ipswich 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ipswich are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ipswich offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 70% | Ipswich 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Ipswich | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Nov 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 35% | Draw 23% | Ipswich 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Hull City 1.58 / Ipswich 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 1.214 / def 1.106 | Ipswich attack 1.287 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.280 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Ipswich xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Ipswich kick off?
Hull City vs Ipswich kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 25 November 2025 at MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Ipswich?
Hull City 0 - 2 Ipswich.
Where is Hull City vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Ipswich part of?
Hull City vs Ipswich is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 35% chance of winning, Ipswich a 42% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Hull City and Ipswich will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Ipswich?
Record (2 meetings): Hull City 0W | Draws 1 | Ipswich 1W.
What form are Hull City and Ipswich in?
Hull City (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Ipswich (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hull City's attack at 1.21x the league average against Ipswich's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ipswich's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
35%
2.84
23%
4.34
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Hull City xG
Total xG
3.31
1.73
Ipswich xG
2.84
35%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
18%
5.64
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
6%
15.99
9%
11.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Hull City and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Hull City and 1.73 for Ipswich, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Hull City have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 16W 14D 23L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ipswich's form line: 10W 16D 27L from 53 games, 0.87 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Ipswich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hull City on 1.17 PPG, Ipswich on 0.87. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hull City have posted 1.36 PPG from 25 outings (9W 7D 9L).
On the road, Ipswich have gone 5W 8D 12L from 25 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hull City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hull City are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 1.17 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ipswich in 62%.
Last 53 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
Ipswich
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 16W 14D 23L in their last 53 games (1.17 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 10W 16D 27L in their last 53 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Ipswich away?
Hull City's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.36 PPG; Ipswich away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hull City and Ipswich runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 3 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ipswich go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Oct 2023, when Ipswich won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hull City's record when hosting Ipswich specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Hull City
1
Draws
3
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Ipswich?
From 4 meetings on record, Hull City have won 0, Ipswich have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Ipswich last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2026, when Ipswich 1-0 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Hull City at 68%, Ipswich at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Hull City) and 60% (Ipswich). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ipswich in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Ipswich?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Hull City's games and 72% of Ipswich's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hull City vs Ipswich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Hull City's matches and 60% of Ipswich's.
Do Hull City and Ipswich tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Ipswich in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ipswich cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hull City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Hull City 0-2 at MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.58 xG and Ipswich 1.73 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hull City fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.21 / defence 1.11 against Ipswich attack 1.29 / defence 1.01, drawn from 62/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 35% | Draw 23% | Ipswich 42%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 42%, Ipswich 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ipswich's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.17 PPG, Ipswich 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ipswich win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Ipswich (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.