Hull City 0-2 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hull City vs Birmingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The MKM Stadium plays host to Hull City versus Birmingham in Championship, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 16 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Hull City's overall Championship record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The MKM Stadium, Hull City have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Hull City are significantly better at The MKM Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Birmingham (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Birmingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Birmingham away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Birmingham arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Hull City 1W, Birmingham 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Birmingham half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 36% versus Birmingham 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 37% | Birmingham 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.21 xG and Birmingham 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.960 / defence 1.281 | Birmingham attack 0.860 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.307 / away 1.084. Data: 59 Hull City games / 59 Birmingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 37% | Draw 28% | Birmingham 36%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Birmingham 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hull City at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Birmingham (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hull City if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Hull City 60% | Birmingham 40%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 37% | Draw 28% | Birmingham 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Hull City 1.21 / Birmingham 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.960 / def 1.281 | Birmingham attack 0.860 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.307 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Hull City (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Birmingham xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Birmingham kick off?
Hull City vs Birmingham kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Birmingham?
Hull City 0 - 2 Birmingham.
Where is Hull City vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Birmingham part of?
Hull City vs Birmingham is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 37% chance of winning, Birmingham a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Hull City and Birmingham will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Birmingham?
Record (2 meetings): Hull City 1W | Draws 1 | Birmingham 0W.
What form are Hull City and Birmingham in?
Hull City (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Birmingham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hull City's attack rating (0.96) and Birmingham's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Birmingham's attack (0.86x) against Hull City's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
37%
2.73
28%
3.62
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.41
1.19
Birmingham xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
11%
8.99
11%
9.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.7 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Hull City and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Hull City and 1.19 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Birmingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Hull City have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 18W 11D 30L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Birmingham's form line: 15W 18D 26L from 59 games, 1.07 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-W. The sample for Birmingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Hull City against 1.07 for Birmingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hull City have posted 1.23 PPG from 30 outings (11W 4D 15L).
On the road, Birmingham have gone 6W 10D 14L from 30 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hull City are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.05 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
Birmingham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 18W 11D 30L in their last 59 games (1.10 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 15W 18D 26L in their last 59 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Birmingham away?
Hull City's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.23 PPG; Birmingham away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Hull City or Birmingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Birmingham in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Birmingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Hull City
3
Draws
1
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Birmingham?
From 8 meetings on record, Hull City have won 4, Birmingham have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Birmingham last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Hull City 1-1 Birmingham.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Birmingham?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 40%, Birmingham 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Hull City) and 40% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 43% of games; Birmingham in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Birmingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Hull City's recent matches and 43% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Birmingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Hull City's recent games and 40% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Birmingham tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Birmingham in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Birmingham cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hull City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Birmingham beat Hull City 0-2 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.21 xG and Birmingham 1.19 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hull City fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Birmingham outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.96 / defence 1.28 against Birmingham attack 0.86 / defence 0.97, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 37% | Draw 28% | Birmingham 36%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Birmingham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 37%, Birmingham 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Birmingham's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.10 PPG, Birmingham 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Birmingham win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Birmingham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.