Hull City 1-1 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hull City at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Birmingham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The MKM Stadium plays host to Hull City versus Birmingham in Championship (matchday 36). Kick-off: Tuesday 5 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Current Form
Hull City's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Hull City have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Birmingham (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Birmingham away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Hull City's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Birmingham's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Hull City edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.4 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2023, ended Hull City 2–0 Birmingham — a Hull City win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (last 80 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Birmingham half-time and goal-timing data (last 80 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 55% versus Birmingham 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 48% | Birmingham 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.62 xG and Birmingham 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.926 / defence 0.888 | Birmingham attack 0.780 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.260. Birmingham's defence rating of 1.289 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Hull City's projected output up. Birmingham's attack rating of 0.780 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.87. Data: built from Hull City's last 81 games and Birmingham's last 80.
Result probabilities: Hull City 55% | Draw 25% | Birmingham 20%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 1.81 | Draw 4.04 | Birmingham 4.97. The model has a clear lean to Hull City (55%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hull City at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hull City 50% (last 10 home games) | Birmingham 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, matchday 36 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 55% | Draw 25% | Birmingham 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Hull City 1.62 / Birmingham 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.926 / def 0.888 | Birmingham attack 0.780 / def 1.289 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Hull City (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Birmingham xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hull City vs Birmingham FAQs
What time does Hull City vs Birmingham kick off?
Hull City vs Birmingham kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 5 March 2024 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Birmingham?
Hull City 1 - 1 Birmingham.
Where is Hull City vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Birmingham part of?
Hull City vs Birmingham is a Championship fixture (matchday 36) (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 55% chance of winning, Birmingham a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Hull City and Birmingham will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Hull City vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hull City's attack rating (0.93) and Birmingham's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Birmingham's attack (0.78x) against Hull City's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from Hull City's last 81 games and Birmingham's last 80 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
55%
1.81
25%
4.04
20%
4.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.50
0.87
Birmingham xG
1.81
55%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
4.97
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
23%
4.34
4%
25.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.7 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hull City vs Birmingham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Hull City and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Hull City and 0.87 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Birmingham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 80 outings, Hull City have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 29W 24D 27L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Birmingham's form line: 24W 19D 37L from 80 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Hull City against 1.14 for Birmingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Hull City have posted 1.44 PPG from their last 39 home games (15W 11D 13L).
On the road, Birmingham have gone 10W 6D 23L from their last 39 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hull City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hull City are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.10 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 80 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
Birmingham
Current Season
Hull City (Home) vs Birmingham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hull City
Current Season
Birmingham
Current Season
❓ Hull City vs Birmingham Form FAQs
What form are Hull City and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 29W 24D 27L in their last 80 games (1.39 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 24W 19D 37L in their last 80 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Birmingham away?
Hull City's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.44 PPG; Birmingham away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Birmingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Hull City
3
Draws
1
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Hull City vs Birmingham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Birmingham?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Hull City have won 4, Birmingham have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Birmingham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2026: Hull City 1-1 Birmingham.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Birmingham?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 51%, Birmingham 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Hull City) and 46% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: Hull City keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Hull City have failed to score in 26% of games; Birmingham in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hull City vs Birmingham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hull City and Birmingham matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Hull City's recent matches and 49% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hull City and Birmingham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Hull City's recent games and 46% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Birmingham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Hull City's recent matches and 80% of Birmingham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City and Birmingham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 36, as Hull City and Birmingham drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.62 xG and Birmingham 0.87 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.93 / defence 0.89 against Birmingham attack 0.78 / defence 1.29, drawn from 81/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 55% | Draw 25% | Birmingham 20%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 48%, Birmingham 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (80 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Birmingham's trading profile (80 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.39 PPG, Birmingham 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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