Coventry 1-2 Swansea – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Coventry at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coventry vs Swansea fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Coventry Building Society Arena plays host to Coventry versus Swansea in Championship, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Tuesday 2 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Coventry have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Coventry, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry have gone 6W 1D 0L this season (7 games, 2.71 PPG). They are averaging 2.14 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.71 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Coventry are significantly better at The Coventry Building Society Arena than their overall form suggests.
Swansea's overall Championship record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea's away record: 1W 2D 4L from 7 road trips in Championship this season (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.71 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Coventry — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Swansea — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 20% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coventry 47% versus Swansea 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coventry 47% | Swansea 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coventry 1.97 xG and Swansea 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coventry attack 1.274 / defence 0.899 | Swansea attack 0.879 / defence 1.429. League average goals — home 1.082 / away 1.113. Coventry carry an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — their λ of 1.97 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Swansea bring a strong defensive rating of 1.429 — this is suppressing Coventry's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Coventry games / 15 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coventry 62% | Draw 22% | Swansea 16%. Fair-value odds: Coventry 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Swansea 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Coventry (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Coventry are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Coventry 57% | Swansea 71% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coventry vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: The Coventry Building Society Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coventry 62% | Draw 22% | Swansea 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 51% | xG Coventry 1.97 / Swansea 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Coventry attack 1.274 / def 0.899 | Swansea attack 0.879 / def 1.429 | league avg home 1.082 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Coventry (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Coventry xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Swansea xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coventry vs Swansea kick off?
Coventry vs Swansea kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 2 November 2021 at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What was the final score in Coventry vs Swansea?
Coventry 1 - 2 Swansea.
Where is Coventry vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What competition is Coventry vs Swansea part of?
Coventry vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Coventry vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Coventry a 62% chance of winning, Swansea a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Coventry the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coventry vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Coventry and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Coventry vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and Swansea?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Coventry and Swansea in?
Coventry (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Swansea (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Coventry's attack at 1.27x the league average against Swansea's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Swansea's attack (0.88x) against Coventry's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coventry Win
62%
1.60
22%
4.52
16%
6.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Coventry xG
Total xG
2.85
0.88
Swansea xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
6.42
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
14%
7.16
Win to Nil
26%
3.87
2%
45.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coventry vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Coventry and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Coventry and 0.88 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Coventry vs Swansea?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Coventry's recent record stands at 8W 3D 4L from 15 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Coventry is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Swansea, meanwhile, have gone 5W 5D 5L across 15 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Coventry by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Swansea heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Coventry have managed 6W 1D 0L from 7 games — 2.71 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — Coventry are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Swansea's away record stands at 1W 2D 4L across 7 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Swansea's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coventry come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Coventry are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.20 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Swansea in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coventry
Blended
Swansea
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coventry and Swansea in coming into this match?
Coventry have gone 8W 3D 4L in their last 15 games (1.80 PPG), while Swansea have gone 5W 5D 5L in their last 15 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coventry at home or Swansea away?
Coventry's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coventry at home: 2.71 PPG; Swansea away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Coventry or Swansea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coventry have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Swansea in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Coventry go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Coventry won 0-3 on 21 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coventry have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Swansea — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Coventry
4
Draws
3
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and Swansea?
From 10 meetings on record, Coventry have won 3, Swansea have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Coventry and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Swansea 0-3 Coventry.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Coventry are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coventry 57%, Swansea 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Coventry and 71% for Swansea. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Coventry keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coventry home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coventry play Swansea?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Coventry's games and 71% of Swansea's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coventry vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Coventry's matches and 71% of Swansea's.
Do Coventry and Swansea tend to score early?
Coventry have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Swansea in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Swansea defy the odds to beat Coventry 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Coventry 1-2 at The Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 1.97 xG and Swansea 0.88 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Coventry fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Swansea outscored their 0.88 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.27 / defence 0.90 against Swansea attack 0.88 / defence 1.43, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coventry 62% | Draw 22% | Swansea 16%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Swansea win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 47%, Swansea 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coventry's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Swansea's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Coventry arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Swansea winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Coventry (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.