Charlton vs Lincoln – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Lincoln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lincoln make the trip to The Valley to face Charlton in Championship, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Tuesday 24 November 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Charlton's overall Championship record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at The Valley this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lincoln (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lincoln's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Charlton, 3 for Lincoln and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Lincoln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 54% versus Lincoln 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 40% | Lincoln 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.10 xG and Lincoln 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.724 / defence 0.732 | Lincoln attack 0.793 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.305. Charlton's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Charlton's defence rating of 0.732 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Charlton games / 11 Lincoln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 43% | Draw 32% | Lincoln 25%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Lincoln 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Lincoln's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charlton if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.86 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates are neutral: Charlton 60% | Lincoln 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Lincoln | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 43% | Draw 32% | Lincoln 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 35% | xG Charlton 1.10 / Lincoln 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.724 / def 0.732 | Lincoln attack 0.793 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Charlton (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Lincoln xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Lincoln kick off?
Charlton vs Lincoln is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Tuesday 24 November 2026 at The Valley.
Where is Charlton vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Lincoln part of?
Charlton vs Lincoln is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 43% chance of winning, Lincoln a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Charlton and Lincoln will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Lincoln?
Record (8 meetings): Charlton 1W | Draws 4 | Lincoln 3W.
What form are Charlton and Lincoln in?
Charlton (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Lincoln (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Charlton's attack at 0.72x the league average against Lincoln's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lincoln's attack (0.79x) against Charlton's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 57/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
43%
2.30
32%
3.17
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Charlton xG
Total xG
1.86
0.76
Lincoln xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.82
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
8%
12.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 11.8 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are Charlton and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Charlton and 0.76 for Lincoln, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 16W 19D 22L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lincoln's form line: 34W 13D 10L from 57 games, 2.02 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lincoln are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Charlton.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.43 PPG from 28 outings (11W 7D 10L).
On the road, Lincoln have gone 16W 7D 5L from 28 away games — 1.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lincoln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charlton are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.72 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Lincoln in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Lincoln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 16W 19D 22L in their last 57 games (1.18 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 34W 13D 10L in their last 57 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Lincoln away?
Lincoln's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.43 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.96 PPG.
Have Charlton or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Lincoln in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lincoln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Charlton
4
Draws
3
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Lincoln?
From 8 meetings on record, Charlton have won 1, Lincoln have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Lincoln last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Charlton 2-2 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Lincoln?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charlton see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 50%, Lincoln 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Charlton) and 46% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Lincoln in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Lincoln?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Charlton's recent matches and 39% of Lincoln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Lincoln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Charlton's recent games and 46% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Lincoln tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Lincoln in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.