Cardiff 0-4 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cardiff at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cardiff vs Swansea fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 40 as Cardiff welcome Swansea to Cardiff City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Cardiff have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Swansea's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Cardiff) versus 1.60 (Swansea). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Cardiff, 1 for Swansea and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 0–3 with Swansea winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cardiff trading profile (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Swansea trading profile (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 51% versus Swansea 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 57% | Swansea 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.38 xG and Swansea 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.912 / defence 0.987 | Swansea attack 0.762 / defence 1.422. League average goals — home 1.063 / away 1.092. Swansea bring a strong defensive rating of 1.422 — this is suppressing Cardiff's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Cardiff games / 37 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 50% | Draw 28% | Swansea 22%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Swansea 4.55. Cardiff hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cardiff at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cardiff offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cardiff 40% | Swansea 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 50% | Draw 28% | Swansea 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Cardiff 1.38 / Swansea 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.912 / def 0.987 | Swansea attack 0.762 / def 1.422 | league avg home 1.063 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Swansea xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Swansea kick off?
Cardiff vs Swansea kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Swansea?
Cardiff 0 - 4 Swansea.
Where is Cardiff vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Swansea part of?
Cardiff vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 50% chance of winning, Swansea a 22% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cardiff and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Swansea?
Record (1 meetings): Cardiff 0W | Draws 0 | Swansea 1W.
What form are Cardiff and Swansea in?
Cardiff (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Swansea (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cardiff's attack at 0.91x the league average against Swansea's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Swansea's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
50%
2.01
28%
3.57
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.20
0.82
Swansea xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
6%
17.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.5 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Cardiff and 0.82 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cardiff come into this having played 37 games, going 13W 6D 18L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Swansea sit at 1.30 PPG from 37 outings (13W 9D 15L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cardiff on 1.22 PPG, Swansea on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cardiff's home form reads 7W 2D 10L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Swansea have taken 1.00 points per game from 19 outings (5W 4D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Cardiff are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.11 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Swansea in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Swansea in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 13W 6D 18L in their last 37 games (1.22 PPG), while Swansea have gone 13W 9D 15L in their last 37 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Swansea away?
Cardiff's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.21 PPG; Swansea away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Cardiff or Swansea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Swansea in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cardiff and Swansea runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2022, when Swansea won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cardiff's record when hosting Swansea specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cardiff
1
Draws
5
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Swansea?
From 8 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 2, Swansea have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Cardiff 3-0 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Swansea?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 37%, Swansea 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Cardiff) and 53% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Cardiff have failed to score in 47% of games; Swansea in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Swansea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Cardiff's recent matches and 42% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Cardiff's recent games and 53% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Swansea tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Swansea in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Swansea run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Cardiff.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea beat Cardiff 0-4 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.38 xG and Swansea 0.82 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Cardiff fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Swansea outscored their 0.82 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.91 / defence 0.99 against Swansea attack 0.76 / defence 1.42, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 50% | Draw 28% | Swansea 22%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Swansea win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 57%, Swansea 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Swansea's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.22 PPG, Swansea 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Swansea win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Swansea (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.