Cardiff 0-0 QPR – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates QPR at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cardiff vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cardiff host QPR at Cardiff City Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 26 December 2022 at 17:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cardiff stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Championship matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cardiff's home record at Cardiff City Stadium: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Championship appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
QPR — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, QPR have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cardiff at 0.80 PPG versus QPR's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Cardiff have won 1, QPR 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2022, ended 0–3 with QPR winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cardiff in-play tendencies (69 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
QPR in-play tendencies (69 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 46% versus QPR 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 46% | QPR 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 0.94 xG and QPR 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.811 / defence 0.977 | QPR attack 0.852 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.181. Data: 69 Cardiff games / 69 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 33% | Draw 32% | QPR 35%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | QPR 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates QPR as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.92 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Cardiff 50% | QPR 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 26 Dec 2022, 17:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 33% | Draw 32% | QPR 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Cardiff 0.94 / QPR 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.811 / def 0.977 | QPR attack 0.852 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.242 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: QPR (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
0.98
QPR xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs QPR kick off?
Cardiff vs QPR kicked off at 17:15 on Monday 26 December 2022 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs QPR?
Cardiff 0 - 0 QPR.
Where is Cardiff vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs QPR part of?
Cardiff vs QPR is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 33% chance of winning, QPR a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Cardiff and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and QPR?
Record (3 meetings): Cardiff 1W | Draws 0 | QPR 2W.
What form are Cardiff and QPR in?
Cardiff (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. QPR (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cardiff's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
33%
3.02
32%
3.17
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Cardiff xG
Total xG
1.92
0.98
QPR xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
12%
8.06
14%
7.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 14.3 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Cardiff and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Cardiff and 0.98 for QPR, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 69 outings, Cardiff have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 22W 13D 34L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
QPR's form line: 29W 13D 27L from 69 games, 1.45 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cardiff on 1.14 PPG, QPR on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cardiff have posted 1.14 PPG from 35 outings (11W 7D 17L).
On the road, QPR have gone 14W 5D 16L from 35 away games — 1.34 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Cardiff are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.26 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and QPR in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 22W 13D 34L in their last 69 games (1.14 PPG), while QPR have gone 29W 13D 27L in their last 69 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or QPR away?
QPR's away record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.14 PPG; QPR away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cardiff and QPR runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2022, when QPR won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cardiff's record when hosting QPR specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Cardiff
2
Draws
5
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and QPR?
From 9 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 2, QPR have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when QPR 2-1 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and QPR?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 40%, QPR 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Cardiff) and 54% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Cardiff have failed to score in 40% of games; QPR in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Cardiff's recent matches and 54% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Cardiff's recent games and 54% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and QPR tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, QPR in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cardiff's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Cardiff and QPR drew 0-0 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 0.94 xG and QPR 0.98 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cardiff fell 0.9 short of their projected output. QPR landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.81 / defence 0.98 against QPR attack 0.85 / defence 0.94, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 33% | Draw 32% | QPR 35%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 46%, QPR 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
QPR's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.14 PPG, QPR 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.