Burnley 3-2 Rotherham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burnley at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Rotherham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Burnley host Rotherham at Turf Moor in Championship, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 2 November 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Championship matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Turf Moor, Burnley have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rotherham — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rotherham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rotherham away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Burnley have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
In-Play Profile
Burnley in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Rotherham in-play tendencies (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 54% versus Rotherham 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Burnley 36% | Rotherham 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.72 xG and Rotherham 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 1.174 / defence 0.924 | Rotherham attack 0.680 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.104. Data: 18 Burnley games / 17 Rotherham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 62% | Draw 23% | Rotherham 15%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Rotherham 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Burnley (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Burnley are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Burnley 70% | Rotherham 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Rotherham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Nov 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 62% | Draw 23% | Rotherham 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 41% | xG Burnley 1.72 / Rotherham 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 1.174 / def 0.924 | Rotherham attack 0.680 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Burnley (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Rotherham xG
41%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Rotherham kick off?
Burnley vs Rotherham kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 2 November 2022 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Rotherham?
Burnley 3 - 2 Rotherham.
Where is Burnley vs Rotherham being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Rotherham part of?
Burnley vs Rotherham is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Rotherham?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 62% chance of winning, Rotherham a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Rotherham?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Burnley and Rotherham will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Rotherham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Rotherham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burnley and Rotherham in?
Burnley (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Rotherham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Burnley's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Rotherham's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, Rotherham's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.2%), 1-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
62%
1.61
23%
4.30
15%
6.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.41
0.69
Rotherham xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
6.84
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
18%
5.59
Win to Nil
31%
3.22
3%
38.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 10.7 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.2 | 9.2 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Rotherham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Burnley and Rotherham expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Burnley and 0.69 for Rotherham, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Rotherham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Burnley's recent record stands at 16W 22D 18L from 56 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rotherham, meanwhile, have gone 29W 15D 12L across 56 games — 1.82 PPG, with W-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Rotherham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rotherham by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burnley heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Burnley have managed 10W 10D 8L from 28 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rotherham's away record stands at 12W 9D 7L across 28 trips, a 1.61 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Burnley are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Rotherham are on 1.46 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Rotherham in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Rotherham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Rotherham in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 16W 22D 18L in their last 56 games (1.25 PPG), while Rotherham have gone 29W 15D 12L in their last 56 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Rotherham away?
Rotherham's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.43 PPG; Rotherham away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Burnley or Rotherham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Rotherham in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Burnley and Rotherham runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Burnley
1
Draws
0
Rotherham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Rotherham?
From 2 meetings on record, Burnley have won 1, Rotherham have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Rotherham last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2023, when Rotherham 2-2 Burnley.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Rotherham?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burnley see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Rotherham see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Burnley 50% BTTS, Rotherham 14%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for Burnley and 21% for Rotherham.
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Rotherham in 61%; Burnley have failed to score in 29% of games; Rotherham in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Rotherham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Rotherham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Burnley's recent matches and 14% of Rotherham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Rotherham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Burnley's recent games and 21% of Rotherham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Burnley edge out Rotherham 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Rotherham 3-2 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 19, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.72 xG and Rotherham 0.69 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Burnley beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rotherham outscored their 0.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 1.17 / defence 0.92 against Rotherham attack 0.68 / defence 1.12, drawn from 18/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 62% | Draw 23% | Rotherham 15%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 62%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 36%, Rotherham 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Rotherham's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rotherham arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Burnley winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rotherham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.