Burnley 2-2 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burnley at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 10 as Burnley welcome Charlton to Turf Moor. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burnley's home record at Turf Moor: 0W 6D 4L from 10 Championship appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Charlton have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Charlton have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Charlton's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Burnley's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Burnley trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Charlton trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Burnley 64% and Charlton 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 53% | Charlton 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.41 xG and Charlton 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.826 / defence 1.133 | Charlton attack 0.908 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.243. Data: 9 Burnley games / 55 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 39% | Draw 28% | Charlton 33%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Charlton 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Burnley as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Charlton (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burnley offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 70% | Charlton 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Charlton | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 39% | Draw 28% | Charlton 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG Burnley 1.41 / Charlton 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.826 / def 1.133 | Charlton attack 0.908 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Burnley (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Charlton xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Charlton kick off?
Burnley vs Charlton kicked off at 18:45 on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Charlton?
Burnley 2 - 2 Charlton.
Where is Burnley vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Charlton part of?
Burnley vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 39% chance of winning, Charlton a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Burnley and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Charlton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burnley and Charlton in?
Burnley (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Charlton (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Burnley's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Charlton's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
39%
2.56
28%
3.57
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.69
1.28
Charlton xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
11%
9.21
8%
12.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Burnley and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Burnley and 1.28 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 47 outings, Burnley have picked up 0.62 PPG on a 5W 14D 28L record — L-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charlton's form line: 13W 15D 19L from 47 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-D. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Charlton are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burnley.
Venue Form
On home soil, Burnley have posted 0.70 PPG from 23 outings (2W 10D 11L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 4W 9D 10L from 23 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Burnley are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 0.94 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Charlton in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 5W 14D 28L in their last 47 games (0.62 PPG), while Charlton have gone 13W 15D 19L in their last 47 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Charlton away?
Charlton's away record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 0.70 PPG; Charlton away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 13 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Burnley
1
Draws
0
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Charlton?
From 1 meetings on record, Burnley have won 0, Charlton have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 13 October 2026, when Burnley 2-2 Charlton.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Charlton see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 52%, Charlton 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Burnley) and 44% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Burnley have failed to score in 39% of games; Charlton in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Burnley's games and 61% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Burnley vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Burnley's recent games and 44% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Charlton tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Charlton in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burnley and Charlton share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 10, as Burnley and Charlton drew 2-2 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.41 xG and Charlton 1.28 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.83 / defence 1.13 against Charlton attack 0.91 / defence 1.18, drawn from 9/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 39% | Draw 28% | Charlton 33%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 53%, Charlton 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Charlton arrived the stronger side — 1.15 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.