Blackburn 0-1 Stoke City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Blackburn at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Blackburn vs Stoke City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ewood Park plays host to Blackburn versus Stoke City in Championship, Regular Season - 43. Kick-off: Monday 18 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Blackburn's overall Championship record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Blackburn's home record at Ewood Park: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Championship appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ewood Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Blackburn are significantly better at Ewood Park than their overall form suggests.
Stoke City (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Stoke City have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Blackburn 1W, Stoke City 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Blackburn winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Blackburn — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Stoke City — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackburn 43% versus Stoke City 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackburn 40% | Stoke City 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackburn 1.28 xG and Stoke City 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackburn attack 0.973 / defence 1.013 | Stoke City attack 0.974 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 1.035 / away 1.113. Stoke City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.274 — this is suppressing Blackburn's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Blackburn games / 42 Stoke City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Blackburn 41% | Draw 28% | Stoke City 32%. Fair-value odds: Blackburn 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Stoke City 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Blackburn at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Blackburn if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Blackburn 30% | Stoke City 80%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackburn vs Stoke City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: Ewood Park • Kick-off: Monday 18 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackburn 41% | Draw 28% | Stoke City 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Blackburn 1.28 / Stoke City 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Blackburn attack 0.973 / def 1.013 | Stoke City attack 0.974 / def 1.274 | league avg home 1.035 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Blackburn xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Stoke City xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Blackburn vs Stoke City kick off?
Blackburn vs Stoke City kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 18 April 2022 at Ewood Park.
What was the final score in Blackburn vs Stoke City?
Blackburn 0 - 1 Stoke City.
Where is Blackburn vs Stoke City being played?
The match is being played at Ewood Park.
What competition is Blackburn vs Stoke City part of?
Blackburn vs Stoke City is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackburn vs Stoke City?
Our statistical model gives Blackburn a 41% chance of winning, Stoke City a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackburn vs Stoke City?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Blackburn and Stoke City will score (BTTS).
Will Blackburn vs Stoke City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Stoke City?
Record (1 meetings): Blackburn 1W | Draws 0 | Stoke City 0W.
What form are Blackburn and Stoke City in?
Blackburn (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Stoke City (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Blackburn's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Stoke City's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Stoke City's attack (0.97x) against Blackburn's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
41%
2.46
28%
3.62
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Blackburn xG
Total xG
2.38
1.10
Stoke City xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
14%
7.38
9%
11.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.2 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackburn vs Stoke City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Blackburn and Stoke City expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Blackburn and 1.10 for Stoke City, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackburn vs Stoke City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Blackburn come into this having played 42 games, going 17W 12D 13L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Stoke City sit at 1.31 PPG from 42 outings (15W 10D 17L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Blackburn against 1.31 for Stoke City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Blackburn's home form reads 12W 5D 4L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Blackburn are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Stoke City have taken 1.14 points per game from 21 outings (6W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Blackburn come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Blackburn are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Stoke City are on 1.26 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Blackburn have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackburn
Current Season
Stoke City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Blackburn and Stoke City in coming into this match?
Blackburn have gone 17W 12D 13L in their last 42 games (1.50 PPG), while Stoke City have gone 15W 10D 17L in their last 42 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackburn at home or Stoke City away?
Blackburn's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackburn at home: 1.95 PPG; Stoke City away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Blackburn or Stoke City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Blackburn have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Stoke City in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Blackburn won 0-3 on 25 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Blackburn have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Stoke City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Blackburn
2
Draws
5
Stoke City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Stoke City?
From 10 meetings on record, Blackburn have won 3, Stoke City have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Blackburn and Stoke City last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Stoke City 1-1 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Blackburn and Stoke City?
Stoke City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackburn 43%, Stoke City 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Blackburn) and 52% (Stoke City).
On the defensive side: Blackburn keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackburn home games / Stoke City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Blackburn play Stoke City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Blackburn's recent matches and 62% of Stoke City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Blackburn vs Stoke City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Blackburn's recent games and 52% of Stoke City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Blackburn and Stoke City tend to score early?
Blackburn have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Stoke City in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stoke City defy the odds to beat Blackburn 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stoke City beat Blackburn 0-1 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 43, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.28 xG and Stoke City 1.10 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Blackburn fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 0.97 / defence 1.01 against Stoke City attack 0.97 / defence 1.27, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackburn 41% | Draw 28% | Stoke City 32%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Stoke City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 40%, Stoke City 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackburn's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stoke City's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.50 PPG, Stoke City 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stoke City win broke the near-deadlock. Blackburn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Stoke City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.