Birmingham 1-2 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Birmingham at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Birmingham vs Sunderland encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
St Andrew's Stadium plays host to Birmingham versus Sunderland in Championship, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Friday 11 November 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Birmingham (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Birmingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Birmingham's home record at St Andrew's Stadium: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Championship appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sunderland's overall Championship record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Birmingham's favour (1.60 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Birmingham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Sunderland goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Birmingham 47% versus Sunderland 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Birmingham 48% | Sunderland 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Birmingham 1.17 xG and Sunderland 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Birmingham attack 0.954 / defence 0.848 | Sunderland attack 1.049 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.128. Data: 66 Birmingham games / 19 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Birmingham 39% | Draw 29% | Sunderland 31%. Fair-value odds: Birmingham 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Sunderland 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Birmingham at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Birmingham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Birmingham 50% | Sunderland 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Birmingham vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: St Andrew's Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 11 Nov 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Birmingham 39% | Draw 29% | Sunderland 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Birmingham 1.17 / Sunderland 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Birmingham attack 0.954 / def 0.848 | Sunderland attack 1.049 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Birmingham (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Birmingham xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Sunderland xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Birmingham vs Sunderland kick off?
Birmingham vs Sunderland kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 11 November 2022 at St Andrew's Stadium.
What was the final score in Birmingham vs Sunderland?
Birmingham 1 - 2 Sunderland.
Where is Birmingham vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at St Andrew's Stadium.
What competition is Birmingham vs Sunderland part of?
Birmingham vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Birmingham vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Birmingham a 39% chance of winning, Sunderland a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Birmingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Birmingham and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Birmingham vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Sunderland?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Birmingham and Sunderland in?
Birmingham (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Sunderland (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Birmingham's attack rating (0.95) and Sunderland's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (1.05x) against Birmingham's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 66/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Birmingham Win
39%
2.53
29%
3.42
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Birmingham xG
Total xG
2.17
1.00
Sunderland xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
14%
6.91
10%
10.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 11.5 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Birmingham vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Birmingham and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Birmingham and 1.00 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Birmingham vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 66 outings, Birmingham have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 18W 21D 27L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Birmingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sunderland's form line: 30W 19D 17L from 66 games, 1.65 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sunderland are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Birmingham.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Birmingham have posted 1.24 PPG from 33 outings (10W 11D 12L).
On the road, Sunderland have gone 11W 12D 10L from 33 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Birmingham are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.56 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Sunderland in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Birmingham
Blended
Sunderland
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Birmingham and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Birmingham have gone 18W 21D 27L in their last 66 games (1.14 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 30W 19D 17L in their last 66 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Birmingham at home or Sunderland away?
Sunderland's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Birmingham at home: 1.24 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Birmingham or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Birmingham have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sunderland in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Birmingham have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sunderland — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Birmingham
0
Draws
3
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Sunderland?
From 4 meetings on record, Birmingham have won 1, Sunderland have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Birmingham and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Birmingham 2-1 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Birmingham and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Birmingham see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Birmingham 48%, Sunderland 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Birmingham) and 54% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Birmingham keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Sunderland in 30%; Birmingham have failed to score in 30% of games; Sunderland in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Birmingham home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Birmingham play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Birmingham's recent matches and 52% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Birmingham vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Birmingham's recent games and 54% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Birmingham and Sunderland tend to score early?
Birmingham have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sunderland defy the odds to beat Birmingham 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Birmingham 1-2 at St Andrew's Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Birmingham 1.17 xG and Sunderland 1.00 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sunderland outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Birmingham attack 0.95 / defence 0.85 against Sunderland attack 1.05 / defence 0.98, drawn from 66/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Birmingham 39% | Draw 29% | Sunderland 31%, with Birmingham to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Sunderland win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Birmingham 48%, Sunderland 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Birmingham's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Sunderland's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.14. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.