Birmingham 2-1 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Birmingham at 37%, yet the head-to-head data favours Sunderland — this Birmingham vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
St Andrew's Stadium plays host to Birmingham versus Sunderland in Championship (matchday 33). Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Birmingham (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Birmingham's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sunderland's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Sunderland's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Birmingham, 1.40 for Sunderland — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head sample leans to Sunderland, who have 3 wins from 3 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.3 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Birmingham 1–3 Sunderland — a Sunderland win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Sunderland have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.3 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Birmingham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 77 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Sunderland goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 77 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Birmingham 48% versus Sunderland 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Birmingham 44% | Sunderland 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Birmingham 1.03 xG and Sunderland 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Birmingham attack 0.873 / defence 1.005 | Sunderland attack 0.760 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.223. Sunderland's attack rating of 0.760 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from Birmingham's last 77 games and Sunderland's last 78.
Result probabilities: Birmingham 37% | Draw 31% | Sunderland 32%. Fair-value odds: Birmingham 2.70 | Draw 3.22 | Sunderland 3.14. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Birmingham at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Birmingham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Birmingham's last 10 home games and Sunderland's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Birmingham 60% (last 10 home games) | Sunderland 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Birmingham vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, matchday 33 | Venue: St Andrew's Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Birmingham 37% | Draw 31% | Sunderland 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Birmingham 1.03 / Sunderland 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Birmingham attack 0.873 / def 1.005 | Sunderland attack 0.760 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Birmingham (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Birmingham xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Sunderland xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Birmingham vs Sunderland FAQs
What time does Birmingham vs Sunderland kick off?
Birmingham vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 17 February 2024 at St Andrew's Stadium.
What was the final score in Birmingham vs Sunderland?
Birmingham 2 - 1 Sunderland.
Where is Birmingham vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at St Andrew's Stadium.
What competition is Birmingham vs Sunderland part of?
Birmingham vs Sunderland is a Championship fixture (matchday 33) (England).
Who is favourite to win Birmingham vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Birmingham a 37% chance of winning, Sunderland a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Birmingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Birmingham and Sunderland will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Birmingham vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Birmingham's attack rating (0.87) and Sunderland's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (0.76x) against Birmingham's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from Birmingham's last 77 games and Sunderland's last 78 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Birmingham Win
37%
2.70
31%
3.22
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Birmingham xG
Total xG
1.97
0.93
Sunderland xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
11%
8.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Birmingham vs Sunderland Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Birmingham vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Birmingham and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Birmingham and 0.93 for Sunderland, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Birmingham vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 77 outings, Birmingham have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 23W 19D 35L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Sunderland's form line: 32W 18D 27L from 77 games, 1.48 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Birmingham against 1.48 for Sunderland. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Birmingham have posted 1.34 PPG from their last 38 home games (13W 12D 13L).
On the road, Sunderland have gone 14W 11D 13L from their last 38 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Birmingham are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.40 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 77 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Birmingham
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
Birmingham (Home) vs Sunderland (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Birmingham
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
❓ Birmingham vs Sunderland Form FAQs
What form are Birmingham and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Birmingham have gone 23W 19D 35L in their last 77 games (1.14 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 32W 18D 27L in their last 77 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Birmingham at home or Sunderland away?
Sunderland's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Birmingham at home: 1.34 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Birmingham and Sunderland, the earliest from November 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Birmingham have gone 1W 0D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sunderland — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Birmingham
0
Draws
3
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Birmingham vs Sunderland H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Sunderland?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Birmingham have won 1, Sunderland have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Birmingham and Sunderland last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 February 2024: Birmingham 2-1 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Birmingham and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Birmingham see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Birmingham 50%, Sunderland 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Birmingham) and 42% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Birmingham keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Sunderland in 32%; Birmingham have failed to score in 32% of games; Sunderland in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Birmingham home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Birmingham vs Sunderland Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Birmingham and Sunderland matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Birmingham's recent matches and 50% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Birmingham and Sunderland matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Birmingham's recent games and 42% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Birmingham and Sunderland matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 53% of Birmingham's recent matches and 71% of Sunderland's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Birmingham edge out Sunderland 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Birmingham beat Sunderland 2-1 at St Andrew's Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Birmingham 1.03 xG and Sunderland 0.93 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Birmingham beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Birmingham attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against Sunderland attack 0.76 / defence 0.84, drawn from 77/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Birmingham 37% | Draw 31% | Sunderland 32%, with Birmingham to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Birmingham 44%, Sunderland 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Birmingham's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Sunderland's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Birmingham 1.14 PPG, Sunderland 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Birmingham win broke the near-deadlock. Birmingham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm. Sunderland (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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