Zlin 2-5 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zlin vs Sparta Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Sparta Praha travel to Stadion Letná to take on Zlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 September 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 3W 0D 5L from 8 Czech Liga matches — 1.12 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 2.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.25 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zlin have posted 1W 0D 3L at Stadion Letná — 0.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Sparta Praha — All Games: 5W 2D 1L from 8 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.12 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.38 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Praha away from home this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.67 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 2.12 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Sparta Praha's 2.12 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Zlin's 1.12 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Zlin in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Sparta Praha in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 50% versus Sparta Praha 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 75% | Sparta Praha 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.25 xG and Sparta Praha 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.801 / defence 1.356 | Sparta Praha attack 1.124 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.258. Data: 8 Zlin games / 8 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 25% | Draw 22% | Sparta Praha 53%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 4.00 | Draw 4.55 | Sparta Praha 1.89. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.25 / 1.92) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.16 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 50% | Sparta Praha 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 25% | Draw 22% | Sparta Praha 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Zlin 1.25 / Sparta Praha 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.801 / def 1.356 | Sparta Praha attack 1.124 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.258 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Sparta Praha xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Zlin vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Sparta Praha?
Zlin 2 - 5 Sparta Praha.
Where is Zlin vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Sparta Praha part of?
Zlin vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 25% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 53% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Zlin and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Sparta Praha?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zlin and Sparta Praha in?
Zlin (all comps): 3W-0D-5L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 2.25 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Sparta Praha (all comps): 5W-2D-1L in 8 | 2.12 PPG | GF 2.38 / GA 0.88 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zlin's attack rating (0.80) and Sparta Praha's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Praha's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
25%
4.05
22%
4.50
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Zlin xG
Total xG
3.16
1.92
Sparta Praha xG
4.05
25%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
15%
6.81
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
4%
27.58
15%
6.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Zlin and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Zlin and 1.92 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zlin's recent record stands at 3W 0D 5L from 8 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 1L across 8 games — 2.12 PPG, with D-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sparta Praha by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zlin heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zlin have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sparta Praha's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sparta Praha's season.
The Goals Picture
Zlin are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.38 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 3W 0D 5L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 5W 2D 1L in their last 8 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.00 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Zlin or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zlin have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zlin and Sparta Praha runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sparta Praha have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Sparta Praha won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Sparta Praha specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Zlin
1
Draws
8
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Sparta Praha?
From 9 meetings on record, Zlin have won 0, Sparta Praha have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Sparta Praha 3-1 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zlin at 67%, Sparta Praha at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Zlin and 67% for Sparta Praha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sparta Praha in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Sparta Praha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Zlin's games and 67% of Sparta Praha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Zlin's matches and 67% of Sparta Praha's.
Do Zlin and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Praha run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Zlin 2-5 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.25 xG and Sparta Praha 1.92 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Sparta Praha outscored their 1.92 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.80 / defence 1.36 against Sparta Praha attack 1.12 / defence 1.16, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 25% | Draw 22% | Sparta Praha 53%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 75%, Sparta Praha 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Zlin (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.67 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.