Zlin vs Sparta Praha – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Zlin face Sparta Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Sparta Praha travel to Stadion Letna to take on Zlin. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zlin have posted 4W 0D 6L at Stadion Letna — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Zlin are significantly better at Stadion Letna than their overall form suggests.
Sparta Praha — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Sparta Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sparta Praha away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Sparta Praha's 1.90 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Zlin's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Sparta Praha have the better historical record — 8 wins from 9 previous contests against 0 for Zlin.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2026, ended 1–3 with Sparta Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sparta Praha have won 8 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Zlin in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sparta Praha in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 52% versus Sparta Praha 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 52% | Sparta Praha 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 0.96 xG and Sparta Praha 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.686 / defence 1.032 | Sparta Praha attack 1.014 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.383. Zlin's attack strength of 0.686 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 Zlin games / 36 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 25% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 48%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Sparta Praha 2.08. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 40% | Sparta Praha 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadion Letna • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 25% | Draw 27% | Sparta Praha 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Zlin 0.96 / Sparta Praha 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.686 / def 1.032 | Sparta Praha attack 1.014 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Sparta Praha xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Zlin vs Sparta Praha is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Stadion Letna.
Where is Zlin vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letna.
What competition is Zlin vs Sparta Praha part of?
Zlin vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 25% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Zlin and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Sparta Praha?
Record (9 meetings): Zlin 0W | Draws 1 | Sparta Praha 8W.
What form are Zlin and Sparta Praha in?
Zlin (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Sparta Praha (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zlin's attack rating (0.69) and Sparta Praha's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sparta Praha's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
25%
3.98
27%
3.76
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.41
1.45
Sparta Praha xG
3.98
25%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
6%
16.88
18%
5.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 13.0 | 9.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Zlin and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Zlin and 1.45 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Sparta Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zlin's recent record stands at 10W 8D 22L from 40 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sparta Praha, meanwhile, have gone 25W 7D 8L across 40 games — 2.05 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sparta Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sparta Praha by 1.10 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zlin heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zlin have managed 6W 3D 10L from 19 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sparta Praha's away record stands at 10W 3D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.74 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zlin are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 1.95 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Early Season
Sparta Praha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 10W 8D 22L in their last 40 games (0.95 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 25W 7D 8L in their last 40 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.11 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Zlin or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zlin have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zlin and Sparta Praha runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sparta Praha have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Sparta Praha won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Sparta Praha specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Zlin
1
Draws
8
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Sparta Praha?
From 9 meetings on record, Zlin have won 0, Sparta Praha have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Sparta Praha 3-1 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 47%, Sparta Praha 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Zlin) and 53% (Sparta Praha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha in 53%; Zlin have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Zlin's recent matches and 37% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zlin vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Zlin's matches and 53% of Sparta Praha's.
Do Zlin and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.