Zlin 1-0 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovácko at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slovácko make the trip to Stadion Letná to face Zlin in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 February 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Zlin's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stadion Letná this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Slovácko (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Zlin against 1.70 for Slovácko. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Zlin have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Slovácko in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Zlin lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 0–3 with Slovácko winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Zlin — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Slovácko — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 55% versus Slovácko 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Zlin 60% | Slovácko 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.56 xG and Slovácko 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.013 / defence 1.197 | Slovácko attack 1.127 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.273. Slovácko bring a strong defensive rating of 1.255 — this is suppressing Zlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Zlin games / 20 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 35% | Draw 23% | Slovácko 42%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.86 | Draw 4.35 | Slovácko 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Slovácko at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slovácko if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.28 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 60% | Slovácko 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Feb 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 35% | Draw 23% | Slovácko 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Zlin 1.56 / Slovácko 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.013 / def 1.197 | Slovácko attack 1.127 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Slovácko xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Slovácko kick off?
Zlin vs Slovácko kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 February 2022 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Slovácko?
Zlin 1 - 0 Slovácko.
Where is Zlin vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Slovácko part of?
Zlin vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 35% chance of winning, Slovácko a 42% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Zlin and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Slovácko?
Record (1 meetings): Zlin 0W | Draws 0 | Slovácko 1W.
What form are Zlin and Slovácko in?
Zlin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-W. Slovácko (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Zlin's attack at 1.01x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Slovácko's attack (1.13x) against Zlin's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.72.
These ratings are built from 21/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
35%
2.84
23%
4.34
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Zlin xG
Total xG
3.28
1.72
Slovácko xG
2.84
35%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
18%
5.57
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
6%
15.82
9%
11.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.1 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Zlin and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Zlin and 1.72 for Slovácko, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, Zlin have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 6W 4D 10L record — L-W-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slovácko's form line: 12W 3D 5L from 20 games, 1.95 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slovácko are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zlin.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Zlin have posted 1.40 PPG from 10 outings (4W 2D 4L).
On the road, Slovácko have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slovácko's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Zlin are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.90 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Slovácko in 60%.
Defensively: Slovácko in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 6W 4D 10L in their last 20 games (1.10 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 12W 3D 5L in their last 20 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Slovácko away?
Slovácko's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.40 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Zlin or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zlin have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Slovácko in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slovácko won 3-0 on 18 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zlin have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovácko — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Zlin
1
Draws
5
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Slovácko?
From 9 meetings on record, Zlin have won 3, Slovácko have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Zlin 1-0 Slovácko.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Slovácko?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Zlin, 80% for Slovácko — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Zlin and 80% for Slovácko. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zlin keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Slovácko?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Zlin's games and 80% of Slovácko's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Zlin's matches and 80% of Slovácko's.
Do Zlin and Slovácko tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Zlin defy the odds to beat Slovácko 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Slovácko 1-0 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.56 xG and Slovácko 1.72 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Slovácko landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.01 / defence 1.20 against Slovácko attack 1.13 / defence 1.25, drawn from 21/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 35% | Draw 23% | Slovácko 42%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Zlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 60%, Slovácko 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Slovácko's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Zlin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.