Zlin 5-0 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Sigma Olomouc travel to Stadion Letna to take on Zlin. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 December 2025, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's home record at Stadion Letna: 2W 4D 3L from 9 Czech Liga appearances (1.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sigma Olomouc have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Zlin at 0.90 PPG versus Sigma Olomouc's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Sigma Olomouc have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 7 encounters against Zlin's 1 victories.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Sigma Olomouc winning.
It is worth noting that Sigma Olomouc have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Zlin in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 61% versus Sigma Olomouc 28%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Zlin 44% | Sigma Olomouc 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.01 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.802 / defence 1.206 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.983 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.298. Data: 18 Zlin games / 48 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 24% | Draw 27% | Sigma Olomouc 49%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Sigma Olomouc 2.04. Sigma Olomouc hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 78% | Sigma Olomouc 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion Letna • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Dec 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 24% | Draw 27% | Sigma Olomouc 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Zlin 1.01 / Sigma Olomouc 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.802 / def 1.206 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.983 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Sigma Olomouc xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 14 December 2025 at Stadion Letna.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc?
Zlin 5 - 0 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letna.
What competition is Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 24% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Zlin and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (7 meetings): Zlin 1W | Draws 2 | Sigma Olomouc 4W.
What form are Zlin and Sigma Olomouc in?
Zlin (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zlin's attack at 0.80x the league average against Sigma Olomouc's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
24%
4.12
27%
3.70
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.55
1.54
Sigma Olomouc xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
5%
19.16
18%
5.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.2 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Zlin and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Zlin and 1.54 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, Zlin have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 6W 5D 7L record — W-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc's form line: 7W 6D 5L from 18 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 1.28 PPG, Sigma Olomouc on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Zlin have posted 1.11 PPG from 9 outings (2W 4D 3L).
On the road, Sigma Olomouc have gone 2W 3D 4L from 9 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sigma Olomouc's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Zlin are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.00 scored and 0.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Sigma Olomouc in 28%.
Defensively: Sigma Olomouc in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 6W 5D 7L in their last 18 games (1.28 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 7W 6D 5L in their last 18 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Zlin's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.11 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Zlin or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zlin have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Dec 2025, when Zlin won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Zlin
2
Draws
4
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Sigma Olomouc?
From 8 meetings on record, Zlin have won 2, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Zlin 5-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Sigma Olomouc?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 78%, Sigma Olomouc 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Zlin) and 33% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Zlin's games and 44% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Zlin's recent games and 33% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zlin and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Zlin run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Sigma Olomouc.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Sigma Olomouc 5-0 at Stadion Letna, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.01 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.54 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Zlin beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sigma Olomouc landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.80 / defence 1.21 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.98 / defence 0.93, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 24% | Draw 27% | Sigma Olomouc 49%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Zlin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 44%, Sigma Olomouc 22%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 1.28 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zlin win broke the near-deadlock. Zlin (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.