Zlin 5-9 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 41%, yet in-form Mlada Boleslav provide a compelling counter-argument — this Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zlin host Mlada Boleslav at Stadion Letná in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Zlin — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's home record at Stadion Letná: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Zlin are significantly better at Stadion Letná than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Mlada Boleslav have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Mlada Boleslav — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Zlin, 2 for Mlada Boleslav and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Zlin in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Mlada Boleslav in-play tendencies (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zlin 64% and Mlada Boleslav 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 60% | Mlada Boleslav 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.63 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.822 / defence 1.339 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.948 / defence 1.130. League average goals — home 1.758 / away 1.186. Data: 41 Zlin games / 40 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 41% | Draw 24% | Mlada Boleslav 35%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Mlada Boleslav 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zlin are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mlada Boleslav (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 70% | Mlada Boleslav 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 41% | Draw 24% | Mlada Boleslav 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Zlin 1.63 / Mlada Boleslav 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.822 / def 1.339 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.948 / def 1.130 | league avg home 1.758 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Zlin (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Mlada Boleslav xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav?
Zlin 5 - 9 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 41% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Zlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Zlin and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (4 meetings): Zlin 0W | Draws 2 | Mlada Boleslav 2W.
What form are Zlin and Mlada Boleslav in?
Zlin (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zlin's attack at 0.82x the league average against Mlada Boleslav's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
41%
2.46
24%
4.14
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Zlin xG
Total xG
3.14
1.51
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.46
41%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
22%
4.51
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
9%
11.09
7%
14.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.5 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.7 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Zlin and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Zlin and 1.51 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Zlin have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 8W 14D 20L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mlada Boleslav's form line: 14W 13D 15L from 42 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Mlada Boleslav are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zlin.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Zlin have posted 1.30 PPG from 20 outings (7W 5D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — Zlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mlada Boleslav have gone 7W 2D 11L from 20 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Zlin are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.36 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 8W 14D 20L in their last 42 games (0.90 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 14W 13D 15L in their last 42 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Zlin's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.30 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zlin and Mlada Boleslav runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2023, when Mlada Boleslav won 5-9 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Zlin
3
Draws
5
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Mlada Boleslav?
From 9 meetings on record, Zlin have won 1, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 1-1 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 70%, Mlada Boleslav 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Zlin and 65% for Mlada Boleslav. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Mlada Boleslav?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Zlin's games and 55% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Zlin's matches and 65% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Zlin and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Mlada Boleslav run riot with a 5-9 hammering of Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Zlin 5-9 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 12, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.63 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.51 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 5-9 for 14 actual goals. Zlin beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mlada Boleslav outscored their 1.51 projection by 7.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.82 / defence 1.34 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.95 / defence 1.13, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 41% | Draw 24% | Mlada Boleslav 35%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Mlada Boleslav win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 14, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 60%, Mlada Boleslav 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mlada Boleslav arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. Zlin (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 9 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 9 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.