Teplice 1-3 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Teplice at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sigma Olomouc make the trip to AGC Arena Na Stinadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's home record at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
Sigma Olomouc have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Teplice, 1.10 for Sigma Olomouc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Teplice lead 4W to 2W over the last 9 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 9 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Sigma Olomouc half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 49% versus Sigma Olomouc 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 44% | Sigma Olomouc 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.56 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.956 / defence 0.859 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.847 / defence 1.231. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.114. Sigma Olomouc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.231 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Teplice games / 52 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 55% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 19%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Sigma Olomouc 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Teplice (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 40% | Sigma Olomouc 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 55% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Teplice 1.56 / Sigma Olomouc 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.956 / def 0.859 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.847 / def 1.231 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Teplice (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Sigma Olomouc xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Teplice 1 - 3 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 55% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Teplice and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (9 meetings): Teplice 4W | Draws 3 | Sigma Olomouc 2W.
What form are Teplice and Sigma Olomouc in?
Teplice (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Teplice's attack rating (0.96) and Sigma Olomouc's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sigma Olomouc's attack (0.85x) against Teplice's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
55%
1.82
26%
3.84
19%
5.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.37
0.81
Sigma Olomouc xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
5.24
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
4%
24.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 11.8 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Teplice and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Teplice and 0.81 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Teplice's recent record stands at 18W 15D 24L from 57 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sigma Olomouc, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 22L across 57 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Teplice against 1.32 for Sigma Olomouc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Teplice have managed 13W 4D 12L from 29 games — 1.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sigma Olomouc's away record stands at 7W 10D 12L across 29 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Teplice are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.19 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 18W 15D 24L in their last 57 games (1.21 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 20W 15D 22L in their last 57 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Teplice's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.48 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Teplice or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Teplice
3
Draws
3
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 4, Sigma Olomouc have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Teplice 1-3 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Sigma Olomouc?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 48%, Sigma Olomouc 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Teplice) and 41% (Sigma Olomouc).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Sigma Olomouc in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Teplice's recent matches and 48% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Teplice's recent games and 41% of Sigma Olomouc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Teplice 1-3 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.56 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.81 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.96 / defence 0.86 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.85 / defence 1.23, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 55% | Draw 26% | Sigma Olomouc 19%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Sigma Olomouc win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 44%, Sigma Olomouc 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.21 PPG, Sigma Olomouc 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.