Teplice 0-2 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 39%, yet in-form Plzen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Teplice vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Plzen travel to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to take on Teplice. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 February 2025, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's home record at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Plzen — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Teplice have won 1, Plzen 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Teplice in-play and half-time data (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Plzen in-play and half-time data (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 54% versus Plzen 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 47% | Plzen 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.42 xG and Plzen 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 1.050 / defence 1.058 | Plzen attack 1.050 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.549 / away 1.190. Data: 51 Teplice games / 51 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 39% | Draw 26% | Plzen 35%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Plzen 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Plzen (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 80% | Plzen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Feb 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 39% | Draw 26% | Plzen 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Teplice 1.42 / Plzen 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 1.050 / def 1.058 | Plzen attack 1.050 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.549 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Teplice (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Plzen xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Plzen kick off?
Teplice vs Plzen kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 16 February 2025 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Plzen?
Teplice 0 - 2 Plzen.
Where is Teplice vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Plzen part of?
Teplice vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 39% chance of winning, Plzen a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Teplice and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Plzen?
Record (6 meetings): Teplice 1W | Draws 3 | Plzen 2W.
What form are Teplice and Plzen in?
Teplice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Plzen (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Teplice's attack at 1.05x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
39%
2.53
26%
3.91
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.74
1.32
Plzen xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
11%
9.50
8%
11.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Teplice and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Teplice and 1.32 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 17W 13D 25L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen's form line: 35W 11D 9L from 55 games, 2.11 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 0.95 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
Venue Form
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.35 PPG from 26 outings (9W 8D 9L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 14W 6D 6L from 26 away games — 1.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 2.15 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Plzen in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 17W 13D 25L in their last 55 games (1.16 PPG), while Plzen have gone 35W 11D 9L in their last 55 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.35 PPG; Plzen away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Teplice or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Plzen in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2024, when Plzen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Teplice's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Teplice
5
Draws
4
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 1, Plzen have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Teplice 5-5 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 54%, Plzen 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Teplice) and 62% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Plzen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Teplice's games and 62% of Plzen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Teplice vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Teplice's recent games and 62% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Plzen tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Plzen in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Teplice 0-2 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.42 xG and Plzen 1.32 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Teplice fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 1.05 / defence 1.06 against Plzen attack 1.05 / defence 0.87, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 39% | Draw 26% | Plzen 35%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 47%, Plzen 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Plzen's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.16. That form edge translated into the three points. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plzen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.