Teplice 0-2 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Teplice and Pardubice meet at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 May 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Teplice have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech than their overall form suggests.
Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Pardubice have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Pardubice are 0.60 PPG clear of Teplice in recent Czech Liga fixtures (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Teplice — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Pardubice — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 44% versus Pardubice 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 56% | Pardubice 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.68 xG and Pardubice 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.759 / defence 1.286 | Pardubice attack 0.872 / defence 1.926. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.085. Teplice's attack strength of 0.759 is below the league average — the 1.68 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.926 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Teplice games / 30 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 48% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 27%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Pardubice 3.70. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pardubice (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 40% | Pardubice 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 48% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Teplice 1.68 / Pardubice 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.759 / def 1.286 | Pardubice attack 0.872 / def 1.926 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Teplice (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Pardubice xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Pardubice kick off?
Teplice vs Pardubice kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Pardubice?
Teplice 0 - 2 Pardubice.
Where is Teplice vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Pardubice part of?
Teplice vs Pardubice is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 48% chance of winning, Pardubice a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Teplice and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Pardubice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Teplice and Pardubice in?
Teplice (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Pardubice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.76x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.87x) against Teplice's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
48%
2.09
25%
4.06
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.90
1.22
Pardubice xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
5%
19.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.3 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Teplice and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Teplice and 1.22 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Teplice come into this having played 34 games, going 8W 5D 21L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 1.00 PPG from 34 outings (8W 10D 16L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.85 PPG for Teplice against 1.00 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Teplice's home form reads 5W 2D 10L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 0.94 points per game from 17 outings (5W 1D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.18 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Current Season
Pardubice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 8W 5D 21L in their last 34 games (0.85 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 8W 10D 16L in their last 34 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Pardubice away?
Teplice's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.00 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won 5-1 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Teplice
3
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 5, Pardubice have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Pardubice 1-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Pardubice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 47%, Pardubice 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Teplice and 76% for Pardubice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Teplice's games and 71% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Teplice vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Teplice's matches and 76% of Pardubice's.
Do Teplice and Pardubice tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pardubice beat Teplice 0-2 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Relegation Round - 5, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.68 xG and Pardubice 1.22 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Teplice fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.76 / defence 1.29 against Pardubice attack 0.87 / defence 1.93, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 48% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 27%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Pardubice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 56%, Pardubice 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pardubice's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 0.85 PPG, Pardubice 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pardubice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.35 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.