Teplice 0-1 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 41%, yet in-form Mlada Boleslav provide a compelling counter-argument — this Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mlada Boleslav make the trip to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Teplice have gone 2W 1D 5L this season (8 games, 0.88 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mlada Boleslav's away record: 2W 1D 6L from 9 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.78 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.78 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Mlada Boleslav are 0.80 PPG clear of Teplice in recent Czech Liga fixtures (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Teplice — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 56% versus Mlada Boleslav 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 67% | Mlada Boleslav 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.19 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.899 / defence 1.194 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.620 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.304. Data: 18 Teplice games / 18 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 41% | Draw 29% | Mlada Boleslav 30%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Mlada Boleslav 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mlada Boleslav (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 62% | Mlada Boleslav 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 41% | Draw 29% | Mlada Boleslav 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Teplice 1.19 / Mlada Boleslav 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.899 / def 1.194 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.620 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Teplice (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Mlada Boleslav xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Teplice 0 - 1 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 41% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Teplice and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Mlada Boleslav?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Teplice and Mlada Boleslav in?
Teplice (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Teplice's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (0.62x) against Teplice's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
41%
2.43
29%
3.42
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.16
0.97
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
16%
6.39
9%
11.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 11.2 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Teplice and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Teplice and 0.97 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Teplice come into this having played 18 games, going 3W 2D 13L for 0.61 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mlada Boleslav sit at 1.28 PPG from 18 outings (7W 2D 9L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Mlada Boleslav is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mlada Boleslav carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Teplice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Teplice's home form reads 2W 1D 5L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Mlada Boleslav have taken 0.88 points per game from 8 outings (2W 1D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.28 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mlada Boleslav's season.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.56 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 3W 2D 13L in their last 18 games (0.61 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 7W 2D 9L in their last 18 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Teplice's home record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 0.88 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 3-0 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Teplice
2
Draws
5
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 3, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 0-2 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 62%, Mlada Boleslav 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Teplice) and 25% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: Mlada Boleslav in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Mlada Boleslav?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Teplice's recent matches and 38% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Teplice's recent games and 25% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mlada Boleslav defy the odds to beat Teplice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Teplice 0-1 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.19 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.97 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Teplice fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.90 / defence 1.19 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.62 / defence 0.98, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 41% | Draw 29% | Mlada Boleslav 30%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Mlada Boleslav win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 67%, Mlada Boleslav 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Mlada Boleslav arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.61. That form edge translated into the three points. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.