Teplice 2-0 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Karviná at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Karviná fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AGC Arena Na Stinadlech plays host to Teplice versus Karviná in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Karviná have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Karviná, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Karviná have posted 6W 0D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Teplice, 1.70 for Karviná — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Teplice 2W, Karviná 2W, 4D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 1–4 with Karviná winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 50% versus Karviná 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 44% | Karviná 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.43 xG and Karviná 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.879 / defence 0.924 | Karviná attack 1.263 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.268. Karviná have an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — the away xG of 1.48 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 50 Teplice games / 50 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 36% | Draw 25% | Karviná 38%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Karviná 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Karviná are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Karviná if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 50% | Karviná 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 36% | Draw 25% | Karviná 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Teplice 1.43 / Karviná 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.879 / def 0.924 | Karviná attack 1.263 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Karviná (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Karviná xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Karviná kick off?
Teplice vs Karviná kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Karviná?
Teplice 2 - 0 Karviná.
Where is Teplice vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Karviná part of?
Teplice vs Karviná is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 36% chance of winning, Karviná a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Karviná the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Teplice and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Karviná?
Record (8 meetings): Teplice 2W | Draws 4 | Karviná 2W.
What form are Teplice and Karviná in?
Teplice (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Karviná (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Teplice's attack rating (0.88) and Karviná's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (1.26x) against Teplice's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Karviná Win
36%
2.75
25%
3.97
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.91
1.48
Karviná xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
8%
12.08
9%
10.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.5 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Teplice and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Teplice and 1.48 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 17W 14D 21L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Karviná's form line: 21W 10D 21L from 52 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Karviná is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Teplice against 1.40 for Karviná. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.42 PPG from 26 outings (11W 4D 11L).
On the road, Karviná have gone 11W 4D 11L from 26 away games — 1.42 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.42 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná in 63%.
Last 52 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Karviná
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Karviná in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 17W 14D 21L in their last 52 games (1.25 PPG), while Karviná have gone 21W 10D 21L in their last 52 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Karviná away?
Teplice's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.42 PPG; Karviná away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Teplice or Karviná been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Karviná in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Karviná won 4-1 on 30 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Teplice
4
Draws
2
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Karviná?
From 9 meetings on record, Teplice have won 3, Karviná have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Teplice 2-0 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Karviná?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 46%, Karviná 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 46% for Teplice and 81% for Karviná. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Karviná?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Teplice's games and 73% of Karviná's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Teplice vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Teplice's matches and 81% of Karviná's.
Do Teplice and Karviná tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Karviná in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Karviná.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Karviná 2-0 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 21, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.43 xG and Karviná 1.48 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Karviná landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.88 / defence 0.92 against Karviná attack 1.26 / defence 1.18, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 36% | Draw 25% | Karviná 38%, with Karviná to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Teplice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 44%, Karviná 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Karviná's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.25 PPG, Karviná 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Karviná (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.