Teplice 3-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Teplice and Bohemians 1905 meet at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 July 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Teplice haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Teplice have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bohemians 1905 (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Bohemians 1905 haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Teplice 3W, Bohemians 1905 3W, 3D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2025, ended 1–0 with Teplice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 53% versus Bohemians 1905 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Teplice 38% | Bohemians 1905 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.18 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.866 / defence 0.967 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.947 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.403 / away 1.204. Data: 30 Teplice games / 30 Bohemians 1905 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Teplice 37% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 1905 33%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Bohemians 1905 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 40% | Bohemians 1905 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 37% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 1905 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Teplice 1.18 / Bohemians 1905 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.866 / def 0.967 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.947 / def 0.971 | league avg home 1.403 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Teplice (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Bohemians 1905 xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 July 2026 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Bohemians 1905?
Teplice 3 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 37% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Teplice and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Bohemians 1905?
Record (9 meetings): Teplice 3W | Draws 3 | Bohemians 1905 3W.
What form are Teplice and Bohemians 1905 in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Teplice (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.87x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.95x) against Teplice's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
37%
2.71
30%
3.33
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.28
1.10
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
10%
9.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.2 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Teplice and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Teplice and 1.10 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 9W 12D 11L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. Teplice haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 11W 6D 15L from 32 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. Bohemians 1905 haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Teplice against 1.22 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.19 PPG from 16 outings (5W 4D 7L).
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 6W 3D 7L from 16 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Teplice are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.91 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Pre-Season
Bohemians 1905
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 9W 12D 11L in their last 32 games (1.22 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 11W 6D 15L in their last 32 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Bohemians 1905's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.19 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Teplice or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Teplice have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won 3-0 on 2 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Teplice
3
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Teplice 3-1 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Bohemians 1905?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Teplice see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 44%, Bohemians 1905 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Teplice) and 44% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Teplice have failed to score in 31% of games; Bohemians 1905 in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Teplice's recent matches and 44% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Teplice's recent games and 44% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bohemians 1905.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Bohemians 1905 3-1 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.18 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.10 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Teplice beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.87 / defence 0.97 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.95 / defence 0.97, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 37% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 1905 33%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 38%, Bohemians 1905 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.22 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.