Sparta Praha 0-0 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Praha at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sparta Praha vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 7 as Sparta Praha welcome Zlin to Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 3 September 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sparta Praha — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sparta Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sparta Praha have posted 6W 2D 2L at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Sparta Praha are significantly better at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zlin's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sparta Praha at 1.50 PPG versus Zlin's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Sparta Praha, 0 for Zlin and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2022, ended 2–0 with Sparta Praha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sparta Praha in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Zlin in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 58% versus Zlin 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 58% | Zlin 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.79 xG and Zlin 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.088 / defence 0.876 | Zlin attack 0.764 / defence 1.124. League average goals — home 1.465 / away 1.374. Data: 36 Sparta Praha games / 36 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 57% | Draw 25% | Zlin 18%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Zlin 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 80% | Zlin 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 57% | Draw 25% | Zlin 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 51% | xG Sparta Praha 1.79 / Zlin 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.088 / def 0.876 | Zlin attack 0.764 / def 1.124 | league avg home 1.465 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Zlin xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Zlin kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Zlin kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Zlin?
Sparta Praha 0 - 0 Zlin.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Zlin part of?
Sparta Praha vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 57% chance of winning, Zlin a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sparta Praha and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Zlin?
Record (2 meetings): Sparta Praha 2W | Draws 0 | Zlin 0W.
What form are Sparta Praha and Zlin in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Zlin (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sparta Praha's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Sparta Praha's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
57%
1.75
25%
4.07
18%
5.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.71
0.92
Zlin xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
5.48
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
3%
32.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.9 | 10.9 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 0.92 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Sparta Praha have picked up 2.05 PPG on a 25W 9D 7L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sparta Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zlin's form line: 10W 12D 19L from 41 games, 1.02 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.03 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zlin.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sparta Praha have posted 2.30 PPG from 20 outings (14W 4D 2L).
On the road, Zlin have gone 2W 7D 11L from 20 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.20 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin in 61%.
Last 41 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Early Season
Zlin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Zlin in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 25W 9D 7L in their last 41 games (2.05 PPG), while Zlin have gone 10W 12D 19L in their last 41 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Zlin away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.30 PPG; Zlin away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Zlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Zlin in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sparta Praha have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Sparta Praha won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sparta Praha's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
8
Sparta Praha
1
Draws
0
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Zlin?
From 9 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 8, Zlin have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Sparta Praha 3-1 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Zlin?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 65%, Zlin 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Sparta Praha) and 50% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Zlin in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Sparta Praha's games and 60% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Praha vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Sparta Praha's recent games and 50% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Praha and Zlin tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Zlin in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sparta Praha's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena, Regular Season - 7, as Sparta Praha and Zlin drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.79 xG and Zlin 0.92 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sparta Praha fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Zlin landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.09 / defence 0.88 against Zlin attack 0.76 / defence 1.12, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 57% | Draw 25% | Zlin 18%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 58%, Zlin 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Zlin's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.