Sparta Praha 2-0 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (77%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sparta Praha face Zlin.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 16 as Sparta Praha welcome Zlin to epet ARENA. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 November 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sparta Praha — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sparta Praha have posted 9W 0D 1L at epet ARENA — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Sparta Praha have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Sparta Praha: 4 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Zlin, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Jul 2023, ended 1–0 with Sparta Praha winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sparta Praha and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Sparta Praha in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Zlin in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sparta Praha 56% and Zlin 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 56% | Zlin 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 2.42 xG and Zlin 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.579 / defence 0.755 | Zlin attack 0.730 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.487 / away 1.163. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.579 — their λ of 2.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sparta Praha's defence rating of 0.755 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Sparta Praha games / 45 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 77% | Draw 15% | Zlin 8%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.30 | Draw 6.67 | Zlin 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (77%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 77% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 50% | Zlin 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 77% | Draw 15% | Zlin 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 43% | xG Sparta Praha 2.42 / Zlin 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.579 / def 0.755 | Zlin attack 0.730 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.487 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (77%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Zlin xG
43%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Zlin kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Zlin kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Zlin?
Sparta Praha 2 - 0 Zlin.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Zlin part of?
Sparta Praha vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 77% chance of winning, Zlin a 8% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sparta Praha and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Zlin?
Record (5 meetings): Sparta Praha 4W | Draws 1 | Zlin 0W.
What form are Sparta Praha and Zlin in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Zlin (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sparta Praha's attacking strength (1.58x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.42. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Sparta Praha's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.7%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
77%
1.30
15%
6.56
8%
12.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
3 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
3.06
0.64
Zlin xG
1.30
77%
Home win
6.56
15%
Draw
12.67
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
9%
11.30
Win to Nil
41%
2.47
1%
143.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 7.2 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 8.8 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 0.64 for Zlin, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 77%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Sparta Praha have picked up 2.32 PPG on a 35W 11D 4L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zlin's form line: 10W 18D 22L from 50 games, 0.96 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-D. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.36 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zlin.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sparta Praha have posted 2.44 PPG from 25 outings (19W 4D 2L).
On the road, Zlin have gone 2W 11D 12L from 25 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.28 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.16 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin in 64%.
Defensively: Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Zlin in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 35W 11D 4L in their last 50 games (2.32 PPG), while Zlin have gone 10W 18D 22L in their last 50 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Zlin away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.44 PPG; Zlin away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Zlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Zlin in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sparta Praha have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Sparta Praha won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sparta Praha's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
8
Sparta Praha
1
Draws
0
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Zlin?
From 9 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 8, Zlin have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Sparta Praha 3-1 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Zlin?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 60%, Zlin 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Sparta Praha and 52% for Zlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Zlin in 32%; Zlin in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Zlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Sparta Praha's games and 52% of Zlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Praha vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Sparta Praha's matches and 52% of Zlin's.
Do Sparta Praha and Zlin tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Zlin in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Praha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Zlin 2-0 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 2.42 xG and Zlin 0.64 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.58 / defence 0.76 against Zlin attack 0.73 / defence 1.03, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 77% | Draw 15% | Zlin 8%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 77%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 56%, Zlin 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Zlin's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.