Sparta Praha 2-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (75%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sparta Praha face Teplice.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to epet ARENA to face Sparta Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 December 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Sparta Praha (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Praha's home record at epet ARENA: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at epet ARENA. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Sparta Praha. A 1.30 PPG lead over Teplice (2.50 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Across 5 previous meetings, Sparta Praha are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 2 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sparta Praha and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Sparta Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 54% versus Teplice 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 56% | Teplice 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 2.47 xG and Teplice 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.492 / defence 0.637 | Teplice attack 0.961 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.567 / away 1.206. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.492 — their λ of 2.47 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sparta Praha's defence rating of 0.637 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Sparta Praha games / 47 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 75% | Draw 16% | Teplice 9%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.33 | Draw 6.25 | Teplice 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (75%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 30% | Teplice 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Dec 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 75% | Draw 16% | Teplice 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 48% | xG Sparta Praha 2.47 / Teplice 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.492 / def 0.637 | Teplice attack 0.961 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.567 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.47
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Teplice xG
48%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Teplice kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Teplice kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 17 December 2023 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Sparta Praha 2 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Teplice part of?
Sparta Praha vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 75% chance of winning, Teplice a 9% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sparta Praha and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Teplice?
Record (5 meetings): Sparta Praha 3W | Draws 2 | Teplice 0W.
What form are Sparta Praha and Teplice in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Teplice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sparta Praha's attack rating (1.49) and Teplice's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 2.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.96x) against Sparta Praha's defence (0.64x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 48/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
75%
1.33
16%
6.45
9%
10.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.2%
Home win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.47
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
3.21
0.74
Teplice xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.45
16%
Draw
10.99
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
8%
11.87
Win to Nil
36%
2.78
1%
130.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 2.47 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 0.74 for Teplice, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 52 outings, Sparta Praha have picked up 2.40 PPG on a 38W 11D 3L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice's form line: 16W 14D 22L from 52 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.21 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sparta Praha have posted 2.58 PPG from 26 outings (21W 4D 1L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 7W 3D 16L from 26 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.31 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.15 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Teplice in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 38W 11D 3L in their last 52 games (2.40 PPG), while Teplice have gone 16W 14D 22L in their last 52 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Teplice away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.58 PPG; Teplice away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Teplice in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 0-3 on 9 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sparta Praha
4
Draws
0
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 6, Teplice have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Teplice 0-1 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Teplice?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 54%, Teplice 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Sparta Praha and 73% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Sparta Praha's games and 65% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Praha vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Sparta Praha's matches and 73% of Teplice's.
Do Sparta Praha and Teplice tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Teplice in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Teplice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Teplice 2-1 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 19, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 2.47 xG and Teplice 0.74 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.49 / defence 0.64 against Teplice attack 0.96 / defence 1.06, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 75% | Draw 16% | Teplice 9%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 75%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 56%, Teplice 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Teplice's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.