Sparta Praha 4-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 5 as Sparta Praha welcome Hradec Králové to Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Sparta Praha have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 outings — a 2.50 PPG return. Last five: W W W D. They are averaging 2.75 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Sparta Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hradec Králové — All Games: 0W 3D 1L from 4 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 0.75 PPG. Last five: D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.75 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.50 vs 0.75. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Sparta Praha in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sparta Praha 50% and Hradec Králové 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sparta Praha 50% | Hradec Králové 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.55 xG and Hradec Králové 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.187 / defence 0.998 | Hradec Králové attack 0.667 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.389. Data: 4 Sparta Praha games / 4 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 52% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 22%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Hradec Králové 4.55. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sparta Praha 50% | Hradec Králové 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 52% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Sparta Praha 1.55 / Hradec Králové 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.187 / def 0.998 | Hradec Králové attack 0.667 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Hradec Králové xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 21 August 2021 at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Sparta Praha 4 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové part of?
Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 52% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 3W-1D-0L in 4 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.75 / GA 0.75 | L5 W-W-W-D. Hradec Králové (all comps): 0W-3D-1L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sparta Praha's attack at 1.19x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Sparta Praha's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.92
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.48
0.93
Hradec Králové xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
21%
4.85
5%
21.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.1 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 0.93 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sparta Praha come into this having played 4 games, going 3W 1D 0L for 2.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Sparta Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 0.75 PPG from 4 outings (0W 3D 1L), a run that reads D-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.75 PPG clear of Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 0.75 scored and 1.00 conceded. Sparta Praha's scoring rate against Hradec Králové's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Hradec Králové in 75%.
Defensively: Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Early Season
Hradec Králové
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 3W 1D 0L in their last 4 games (2.50 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 0W 3D 1L in their last 4 (0.75 PPG).
Have Sparta Praha or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sparta Praha have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2025, when Sparta Praha won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sparta Praha's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 5W 1D 0L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sparta Praha
1
Draws
1
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 8, Hradec Králové have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Sparta Praha 2-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 50%, Hradec Králové 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Sparta Praha and 0% for Hradec Králové.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Hradec Králové?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sparta Praha's games and 75% of Hradec Králové's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Praha vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sparta Praha's recent games and 0% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Praha and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Praha run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Hradec Králové.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Hradec Králové 4-0 at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.55 xG and Hradec Králové 0.93 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sparta Praha beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hradec Králové landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.19 / defence 1.00 against Hradec Králové attack 0.67 / defence 1.09, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 52% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 22%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 50%, Hradec Králové 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.75. That form edge translated into the three points. Sparta Praha scored 4 against a 2.75 average — above their attacking norm. Hradec Králové shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.