Sparta Praha 1-1 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Praha at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena plays host to Sparta Praha versus Bohemians 1905 in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 27 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sparta Praha have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sparta Praha have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sparta Praha have posted 6W 2D 2L at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Sparta Praha against 2.00 for Bohemians 1905. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sparta Praha lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 5–1 with Sparta Praha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sparta Praha half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 56% versus Bohemians 1905 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 62% | Bohemians 1905 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.30 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.098 / defence 0.890 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.043 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.495 / away 1.359. Bohemians 1905's defence strength of 0.792 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 34 Sparta Praha games / 34 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 37% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 35%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Bohemians 1905 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 80% | Bohemians 1905 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 37% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Sparta Praha 1.30 / Bohemians 1905 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.098 / def 0.890 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.043 / def 0.792 | league avg home 1.495 / away 1.359 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Bohemians 1905 xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Sparta Praha 1 - 1 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 37% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905?
Record (1 meetings): Sparta Praha 1W | Draws 0 | Bohemians 1905 0W.
What form are Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sparta Praha's attack at 1.10x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (1.04x) against Sparta Praha's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
37%
2.69
28%
3.64
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.56
1.26
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
11%
9.52
10%
10.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.26 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sparta Praha come into this having played 39 games, going 25W 7D 7L for 2.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Sparta Praha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.18 PPG from 39 outings (12W 10D 17L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sparta Praha's home form reads 15W 3D 2L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.00 points per game from 20 outings (5W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.38 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Early Season
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 25W 7D 7L in their last 39 games (2.10 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 10D 17L in their last 39 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.40 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 5-1 on 12 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sparta Praha
1
Draws
1
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 8, Bohemians 1905 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Bohemians 1905 2-0 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 65%, Bohemians 1905 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Sparta Praha and 60% for Bohemians 1905. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Sparta Praha's games and 55% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Praha vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Sparta Praha's matches and 60% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha and Bohemians 1905 finished level at 1-1 at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.30 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.26 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.10 / defence 0.89 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.04 / defence 0.79, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 37% | Draw 28% | Bohemians 1905 35%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 62%, Bohemians 1905 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.