Slovan Liberec 1-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Hradec Králové at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Hradec Králové travel to Stadion u Nisy to take on Slovan Liberec. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 December 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovan Liberec stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec's home record at Stadion u Nisy: 3W 0D 5L from 8 Czech Liga appearances (1.12 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.12 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion u Nisy this season.
Hradec Králové — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Hradec Králové have posted 2W 2D 4L from 8 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Slovan Liberec 1.90 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovan Liberec 50% versus Hradec Králové 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovan Liberec 50% | Hradec Králové 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovan Liberec 1.37 xG and Hradec Králové 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovan Liberec attack 0.737 / defence 1.161 | Hradec Králové attack 0.943 / defence 1.335. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.281. Slovan Liberec's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 1.37 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hradec Králové bring a strong defensive rating of 1.335 — this is suppressing Slovan Liberec's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Slovan Liberec games / 16 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 37% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 38%. Fair-value odds: Slovan Liberec 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Hradec Králové 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hradec Králové are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Slovan Liberec 25% | Hradec Králové 62%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion u Nisy • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovan Liberec 37% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Slovan Liberec 1.37 / Hradec Králové 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Slovan Liberec attack 0.737 / def 1.161 | Hradec Králové attack 0.943 / def 1.335 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Slovan Liberec xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Hradec Králové xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Stadion u Nisy.
What was the final score in Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Slovan Liberec 1 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Stadion u Nisy.
What competition is Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové part of?
Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Slovan Liberec a 37% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové in?
Slovan Liberec (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Slovan Liberec's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Slovan Liberec's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
37%
2.74
25%
3.93
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Slovan Liberec xG
Total xG
2.77
1.40
Hradec Králové xG
2.74
37%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
25%
3.93
Win to Nil
9%
11.12
10%
10.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.0 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Slovan Liberec and 1.40 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovan Liberec come into this having played 16 games, going 6W 2D 8L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hradec Králové sit at 1.50 PPG from 16 outings (6W 6D 4L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Slovan Liberec on 1.25 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Slovan Liberec's home form reads 3W 0D 5L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Hradec Králové have taken 1.00 points per game from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's season.
The Goals Picture
Slovan Liberec are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.38 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 16 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovan Liberec
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Slovan Liberec have gone 6W 2D 8L in their last 16 games (1.25 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 6W 6D 4L in their last 16 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovan Liberec at home or Hradec Králové away?
Slovan Liberec's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovan Liberec at home: 1.12 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Slovan Liberec or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovan Liberec have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hradec Králové have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 May 2023, when Slovan Liberec won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slovan Liberec's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Slovan Liberec
3
Draws
3
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovan Liberec have won 4, Hradec Králové have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Hradec Králové 1-0 Slovan Liberec.
Who has won more matches between Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové?
Slovan Liberec have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovan Liberec 25%, Hradec Králové 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Slovan Liberec) and 62% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Slovan Liberec have failed to score in 62% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovan Liberec home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovan Liberec play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Slovan Liberec's recent matches and 62% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Slovan Liberec's recent games and 62% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovan Liberec and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Slovan Liberec have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Slovan Liberec defy the odds to beat Hradec Králové 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Hradec Králové 1-0 at Stadion u Nisy, Regular Season - 17, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovan Liberec 1.37 xG and Hradec Králové 1.40 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hradec Králové landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovan Liberec attack 0.74 / defence 1.16 against Hradec Králové attack 0.94 / defence 1.33, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovan Liberec 37% | Draw 25% | Hradec Králové 38%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Slovan Liberec win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovan Liberec 50%, Hradec Králové 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Slovan Liberec 1.25 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.