Slovácko 2-1 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Slovácko at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Slovácko vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Slovácko host Pardubice at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Slovácko stand at 3W 1D 1L from 5 Czech Liga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Slovácko have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pardubice — All Games: 1W 2D 2L from 5 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Pardubice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Slovácko are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Slovácko trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Pardubice trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Slovácko 40% and Pardubice 80% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 20% | Pardubice 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 1.43 xG and Pardubice 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.804 / defence 0.881 | Pardubice attack 0.885 / defence 1.360. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.232. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.360 — this is suppressing Slovácko's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Slovácko games / 5 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 48% | Draw 27% | Pardubice 25%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Pardubice 4.00. Slovácko hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slovácko as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Slovácko offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Slovácko 40% | Pardubice 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 48% | Draw 27% | Pardubice 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Slovácko 1.43 / Pardubice 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.804 / def 0.881 | Pardubice attack 0.885 / def 1.360 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Slovácko (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Pardubice xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Pardubice kick off?
Slovácko vs Pardubice kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Slovácko 2 - 1 Pardubice.
Where is Slovácko vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Pardubice part of?
Slovácko vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 48% chance of winning, Pardubice a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Slovácko the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Slovácko and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Pardubice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Slovácko and Pardubice in?
Slovácko (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Pardubice (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Slovácko's attack at 0.80x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pardubice's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovácko Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.73
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.39
0.96
Pardubice xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
6%
16.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.6 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Slovácko and 0.96 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Slovácko come into this having played 5 games, going 3W 1D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Slovácko, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 1.00 PPG from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pardubice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slovácko carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Pardubice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Slovácko are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 1.80 scored and 1.80 conceded. Pardubice's attacking output running into Slovácko's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice in 80%.
Defensively: Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Early Season
Pardubice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 games (2.00 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
Have Slovácko or Pardubice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Pardubice in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Slovácko and Pardubice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Slovácko's record when hosting Pardubice specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Slovácko
3
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 5, Pardubice have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Slovácko 2-0 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Pardubice?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 40%, Pardubice 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Slovácko) and 80% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Pardubice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Slovácko's games and 80% of Pardubice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Slovácko vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Slovácko's recent games and 80% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Pardubice tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slovácko edge out Pardubice 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovácko beat Pardubice 2-1 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 1.43 xG and Pardubice 0.96 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.80 / defence 0.88 against Pardubice attack 0.89 / defence 1.36, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 48% | Draw 27% | Pardubice 25%, with Slovácko to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 20%, Pardubice 80%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Pardubice's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Slovácko scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Pardubice managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.