Slovácko 2-4 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Slovácko host Bohemians 1905 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 9 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Slovácko — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovácko at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Slovácko are significantly better at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians 1905 stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Slovácko at 1.30 PPG versus Bohemians 1905's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Slovácko, 0 for Bohemians 1905 and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 2–1 with Slovácko winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Slovácko in-play tendencies (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 in-play tendencies (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Slovácko 56% versus Bohemians 1905 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Slovácko 62% | Bohemians 1905 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Slovácko 0.84 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Slovácko attack 0.798 / defence 0.951 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.992 / defence 0.704. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.344. Slovácko's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bohemians 1905's defence strength of 0.704 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 40 Slovácko games / 40 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Slovácko 22% | Draw 34% | Bohemians 1905 44%. Fair-value odds: Slovácko 4.55 | Draw 2.94 | Bohemians 1905 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bohemians 1905 at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Slovácko 40% | Bohemians 1905 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Slovácko 22% | Draw 34% | Bohemians 1905 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Slovácko 0.84 / Bohemians 1905 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Slovácko attack 0.798 / def 0.951 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.992 / def 0.704 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Slovácko xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Bohemians 1905 xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What was the final score in Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Slovácko 2 - 4 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty.
What competition is Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Slovácko a 22% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 44% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Bohemians 1905?
Record (1 meetings): Slovácko 1W | Draws 0 | Bohemians 1905 0W.
What form are Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 in?
Slovácko (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Slovácko's attack at 0.80x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Slovácko's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
22%
4.57
34%
2.92
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Slovácko xG
Total xG
2.10
1.27
Bohemians 1905 xG
4.57
22%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
6%
16.24
19%
5.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 15.5 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Slovácko and 1.27 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Slovácko have picked up 1.80 PPG on a 24W 9D 12L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 14W 12D 19L from 45 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Slovácko are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bohemians 1905.
Venue Form
On home soil, Slovácko have posted 2.24 PPG from 21 outings (15W 2D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — Slovácko are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 7W 5D 9L from 21 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slovácko come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Slovácko are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.33 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Slovácko
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Slovácko have gone 24W 9D 12L in their last 45 games (1.80 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 14W 12D 19L in their last 45 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Slovácko at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Slovácko's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Slovácko at home: 2.24 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Slovácko or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Slovácko have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bohemians 1905 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Dec 2023, when Slovácko won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Slovácko's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Slovácko
3
Draws
4
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Slovácko and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Slovácko have won 3, Bohemians 1905 have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Slovácko 1-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Slovácko and Bohemians 1905?
Bohemians 1905 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Slovácko 43%, Bohemians 1905 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Slovácko) and 52% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Slovácko keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Slovácko home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Slovácko play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Slovácko's recent matches and 57% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Slovácko vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Slovácko's recent games and 52% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Slovácko and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Slovácko have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians 1905 cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Slovácko.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians 1905 beat Slovácko 2-4 at Městský fotbalový stadion Miroslava Valenty, Regular Season - 11, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Slovácko 0.84 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.27 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Slovácko beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 1.27 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Slovácko attack 0.80 / defence 0.95 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.99 / defence 0.70, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Slovácko 22% | Draw 34% | Bohemians 1905 44%, with Bohemians 1905 to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Slovácko 62%, Bohemians 1905 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Slovácko's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Slovácko arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.20. Form was overturned, with Bohemians 1905 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Slovácko (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.