Sigma Olomouc 2-1 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc host Zlin at Andrův stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sigma Olomouc — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 4W 2D 4L at Andrův stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's away record: 0W 7D 3L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Sigma Olomouc) versus 1.10 (Zlin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Sigma Olomouc have won 1, Zlin 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Dec 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Zlin in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 44% versus Zlin 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 41% | Zlin 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.31 xG and Zlin 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.941 / defence 0.979 | Zlin attack 0.768 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.369. Data: 42 Sigma Olomouc games / 42 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 40% | Draw 35% | Zlin 26%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.50 | Draw 2.86 | Zlin 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sigma Olomouc are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 50% | Zlin 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 40% | Draw 35% | Zlin 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.31 / Zlin 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.941 / def 0.979 | Zlin attack 0.768 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Zlin xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin?
Sigma Olomouc 2 - 1 Zlin.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 40% chance of winning, Zlin a 26% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Zlin?
Record (2 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 1W | Draws 1 | Zlin 0W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Zlin in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Zlin (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sigma Olomouc's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Sigma Olomouc's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
40%
2.52
35%
2.88
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.34
1.03
Zlin xG
2.52
40%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
7%
14.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.03 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 46 games, going 15W 14D 17L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zlin sit at 1.04 PPG from 46 outings (11W 15D 20L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sigma Olomouc on 1.28 PPG, Zlin on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 8W 8D 6L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Zlin have taken 0.73 points per game from 22 outings (2W 10D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.20 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Zlin in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 15W 14D 17L in their last 46 games (1.28 PPG), while Zlin have gone 11W 15D 20L in their last 46 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Zlin away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.45 PPG; Zlin away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Zlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Zlin in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sigma Olomouc and Zlin runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Dec 2025, when Zlin won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sigma Olomouc's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
2
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Zlin?
From 8 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, Zlin have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Zlin 5-0 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Zlin?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 50%, Zlin 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Sigma Olomouc) and 46% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Zlin in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 54% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 46% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Zlin tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Zlin in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sigma Olomouc edge out Zlin 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Zlin 2-1 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.31 xG and Zlin 1.03 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.94 / defence 0.98 against Zlin attack 0.77 / defence 0.92, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 40% | Draw 35% | Zlin 26%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 41%, Zlin 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Zlin's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.28 PPG, Zlin 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.