Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sigma Olomouc face Slavia Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha meet at Andrův stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 8 December 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sigma Olomouc's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Andrův stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Slavia Praha (all games): 9W 1D 0L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 2.80 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slavia Praha have posted 7W 3D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Slavia Praha arrive in superior form — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Slavia Praha, who have claimed 4 wins from 6 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Slavia Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Slavia Praha have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Sigma Olomouc goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Slavia Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 67% versus Slavia Praha 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 61% | Slavia Praha 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 0.78 xG and Slavia Praha 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.970 / defence 1.297 | Slavia Praha attack 1.361 / defence 0.548. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.200. Slavia Praha's defence strength of 0.548 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.361 — the away xG of 2.12 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Sigma Olomouc games / 47 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 11% | Draw 22% | Slavia Praha 67%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 9.09 | Draw 4.55 | Slavia Praha 1.49. The model has a clear lean to Slavia Praha (67%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Slavia Praha are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Sigma Olomouc 90% | Slavia Praha 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 11% | Draw 22% | Slavia Praha 67% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 49% | xG Sigma Olomouc 0.78 / Slavia Praha 2.12 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.970 / def 1.297 | Slavia Praha attack 1.361 / def 0.548 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
2.12
Slavia Praha xG
49%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 2 Slavia Praha.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 11% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 67% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha?
Record (6 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 1W | Draws 1 | Slavia Praha 4W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Slavia Praha (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sigma Olomouc's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Slavia Praha's defensive record (0.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.36x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 2.12.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-2, at 12.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.5%), 1-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
11%
8.90
22%
4.59
67%
1.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.90
2.12
Slavia Praha xG
8.90
11%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
1.49
67%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
12%
8.32
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
1%
74.05
31%
3.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 11.7 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 2.12 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 16W 12D 21L from 49 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slavia Praha, meanwhile, have gone 38W 9D 2L across 49 games — 2.51 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Slavia Praha by 1.29 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sigma Olomouc heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 10W 6D 8L from 24 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slavia Praha's away record stands at 16W 7D 1L across 24 trips, a 2.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.20 scored and 0.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 57% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 16W 12D 21L in their last 49 games (1.22 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 38W 9D 2L in their last 49 (2.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.50 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.29 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 57%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 0-5 on 26 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sigma Olomouc
2
Draws
7
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 1, Slavia Praha have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Slavia Praha 2-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 67%, Slavia Praha 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Sigma Olomouc) and 42% (Slavia Praha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Sigma Olomouc's recent matches and 42% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 42% of Slavia Praha's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slavia Praha edge out Sigma Olomouc 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slavia Praha beat Sigma Olomouc 1-2 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 0.78 xG and Slavia Praha 2.12 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.97 / defence 1.30 against Slavia Praha attack 1.36 / defence 0.55, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 11% | Draw 22% | Slavia Praha 67%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 61%, Slavia Praha 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.51 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.