Sigma Olomouc 1-0 FK Jablonec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FK Jablonec at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec meet at Andrův stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 14 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sigma Olomouc have posted 2W 4D 4L at Andrův stadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Sigma Olomouc are significantly better at Andrův stadion than their overall form suggests.
FK Jablonec's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FK Jablonec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, FK Jablonec have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 0.90 for FK Jablonec. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sigma Olomouc lead 1W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
FK Jablonec — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sigma Olomouc 58% and FK Jablonec 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 56% | FK Jablonec 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.41 xG and FK Jablonec 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.809 / defence 1.099 | FK Jablonec attack 1.013 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.563 / away 1.270. Data: 57 Sigma Olomouc games / 57 FK Jablonec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 37% | Draw 27% | FK Jablonec 37%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | FK Jablonec 2.70. The draw (27%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 27% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Sigma Olomouc 50% | FK Jablonec 50%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 37% | Draw 27% | FK Jablonec 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.41 / FK Jablonec 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 0.809 / def 1.099 | FK Jablonec attack 1.013 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.563 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Draw (27%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.41
FK Jablonec xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 14 April 2024 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Sigma Olomouc 1 - 0 FK Jablonec.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 37% chance of winning, FK Jablonec a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec?
Record (3 meetings): Sigma Olomouc 1W | Draws 2 | FK Jablonec 0W.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. FK Jablonec (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sigma Olomouc's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against FK Jablonec's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — FK Jablonec's attack (1.01x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FK Jablonec Win
37%
2.73
27%
3.77
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.83
1.41
FK Jablonec xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
9%
11.21
9%
11.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.41 for FK Jablonec, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sigma Olomouc's recent record stands at 21W 18D 23L from 62 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FK Jablonec, meanwhile, have gone 16W 20D 26L across 62 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for FK Jablonec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.10 for FK Jablonec. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sigma Olomouc have managed 10W 9D 11L from 30 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FK Jablonec's away record stands at 6W 7D 17L across 30 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sigma Olomouc come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; FK Jablonec are on 1.34 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FK Jablonec in 63%.
Last 62 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
FK Jablonec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 21W 18D 23L in their last 62 games (1.31 PPG), while FK Jablonec have gone 16W 20D 26L in their last 62 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or FK Jablonec away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.30 PPG; FK Jablonec away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FK Jablonec won 4-0 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FK Jablonec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sigma Olomouc
4
Draws
2
FK Jablonec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, FK Jablonec have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when FK Jablonec 2-1 Sigma Olomouc.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
FK Jablonec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 60%, FK Jablonec 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Sigma Olomouc and 57% for FK Jablonec. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FK Jablonec in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / FK Jablonec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play FK Jablonec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 57% of FK Jablonec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs FK Jablonec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Sigma Olomouc's matches and 57% of FK Jablonec's.
Do Sigma Olomouc and FK Jablonec tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FK Jablonec in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sigma Olomouc defy the odds to beat FK Jablonec 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat FK Jablonec 1-0 at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.41 xG and FK Jablonec 1.41 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FK Jablonec landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 0.81 / defence 1.10 against FK Jablonec attack 1.01 / defence 1.12, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 37% | Draw 27% | FK Jablonec 37%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 56%, FK Jablonec 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
FK Jablonec's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.31 PPG, FK Jablonec 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sigma Olomouc win broke the near-deadlock. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. FK Jablonec (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.