Sigma Olomouc 2-2 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sigma Olomouc at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 meet at Andrův stadion in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 9 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Sigma Olomouc (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's home record at Andrův stadion: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bohemians 1905's overall Czech Liga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians 1905's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.90 for Bohemians 1905. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sigma Olomouc have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bohemians 1905 in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Sigma Olomouc — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Bohemians 1905 — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sigma Olomouc 48% versus Bohemians 1905 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sigma Olomouc 48% | Bohemians 1905 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sigma Olomouc 1.60 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.125 / defence 0.876 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.221 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.223. Bohemians 1905 have an above-average attack strength of 1.221 — the away xG of 1.31 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Sigma Olomouc games / 55 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 43% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 30%. Fair-value odds: Sigma Olomouc 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Bohemians 1905 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sigma Olomouc as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sigma Olomouc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.91 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sigma Olomouc 60% | Bohemians 1905 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Andrův stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sigma Olomouc 43% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Sigma Olomouc 1.60 / Bohemians 1905 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Sigma Olomouc attack 1.125 / def 0.876 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.221 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.604 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Sigma Olomouc (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Sigma Olomouc xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Bohemians 1905 xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at Andrův stadion.
What was the final score in Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Sigma Olomouc 2 - 2 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Andrův stadion.
What competition is Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Sigma Olomouc a 43% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sigma Olomouc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 in?
Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sigma Olomouc's attack rating (1.12) and Bohemians 1905's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (1.22x) against Sigma Olomouc's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sigma Olomouc Win
43%
2.30
26%
3.80
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Sigma Olomouc xG
Total xG
2.91
1.31
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
12%
8.53
6%
16.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Sigma Olomouc and 1.31 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sigma Olomouc come into this having played 59 games, going 20W 20D 19L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-L. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.34 PPG from 59 outings (22W 13D 24L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bohemians 1905 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Sigma Olomouc against 1.34 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Sigma Olomouc's home form reads 12W 11D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.31 points per game from 29 outings (11W 5D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Sigma Olomouc are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.46 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
Bohemians 1905
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Sigma Olomouc have gone 20W 20D 19L in their last 59 games (1.36 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 22W 13D 24L in their last 59 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sigma Olomouc at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Sigma Olomouc's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sigma Olomouc at home: 1.62 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Sigma Olomouc or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sigma Olomouc have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sigma Olomouc have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sigma Olomouc
3
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Sigma Olomouc have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905?
Sigma Olomouc have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sigma Olomouc 52%, Bohemians 1905 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Sigma Olomouc) and 59% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sigma Olomouc home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sigma Olomouc play Bohemians 1905?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Sigma Olomouc's games and 59% of Bohemians 1905's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sigma Olomouc vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Sigma Olomouc's recent games and 59% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Sigma Olomouc have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Andrův stadion, Regular Season - 26, as Sigma Olomouc and Bohemians 1905 drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sigma Olomouc 1.60 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.31 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sigma Olomouc attack 1.12 / defence 0.88 against Bohemians 1905 attack 1.22 / defence 0.89, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sigma Olomouc 43% | Draw 26% | Bohemians 1905 30%, with Sigma Olomouc to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sigma Olomouc 48%, Bohemians 1905 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sigma Olomouc 1.36 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.