Plzen 3-0 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Slovácko encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slovácko make the trip to Doosan Aréna to face Plzen in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Wednesday 31 August 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Plzen (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plzen at Doosan Aréna this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Doosan Aréna.
Slovácko have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Slovácko have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slovácko have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Plzen's 2.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Slovácko's 1.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Plzen — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
Slovácko — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 46% versus Slovácko 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 49% | Slovácko 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.63 xG and Slovácko 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.027 / defence 0.882 | Slovácko attack 1.108 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.392. Data: 34 Plzen games / 35 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 43% | Draw 26% | Slovácko 31%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Slovácko 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plzen are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Plzen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 40% | Slovácko 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Wednesday 31 Aug 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 43% | Draw 26% | Slovácko 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Plzen 1.63 / Slovácko 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.027 / def 0.882 | Slovácko attack 1.108 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Plzen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Slovácko xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Slovácko kick off?
Plzen vs Slovácko kicked off at 16:30 on Wednesday 31 August 2022 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Slovácko?
Plzen 3 - 0 Slovácko.
Where is Plzen vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Slovácko part of?
Plzen vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 43% chance of winning, Slovácko a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Plzen and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Slovácko?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plzen and Slovácko in?
Plzen (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Slovácko (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Plzen's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Slovácko's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Slovácko's attack (1.11x) against Plzen's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 34/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
43%
2.33
26%
3.88
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.99
1.36
Slovácko xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
11%
9.07
6%
16.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.2 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Plzen and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Plzen and 1.36 for Slovácko, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Plzen come into this having played 39 games, going 29W 8D 2L for 2.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 1.87 PPG from 39 outings (22W 7D 10L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Slovácko, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Slovácko — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Plzen's home form reads 17W 2D 0L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.79 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 1.42 points per game from 19 outings (7W 6D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.87 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Slovácko's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Plzen are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.69 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Early Season
Slovácko
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 29W 8D 2L in their last 39 games (2.44 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 22W 7D 10L in their last 39 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Slovácko away?
Plzen's home record (2.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.79 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Plzen or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 49% of their recent games, Slovácko in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won 3-0 on 31 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plzen have gone 3W 2D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Slovácko — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Plzen
3
Draws
4
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 3, Slovácko have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Slovácko 3-0 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Slovácko?
Slovácko have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 74% of the time.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 47%, Slovácko 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Plzen and 79% for Slovácko. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Slovácko?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Plzen's games and 74% of Slovácko's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Plzen's matches and 79% of Slovácko's.
Do Plzen and Slovácko tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Slovácko.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Slovácko 3-0 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 6, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.63 xG and Slovácko 1.36 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Slovácko landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.03 / defence 0.88 against Slovácko attack 1.11 / defence 1.11, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 43% | Draw 26% | Slovácko 31%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 49%, Slovácko 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and duly kept one.
Slovácko's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.87. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.