Plzen 0-0 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plzen host Sigma Olomouc at Doosan Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 7W 0D 0L at Doosan Aréna — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.57 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.40 — Plzen are significantly better at Doosan Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Sigma Olomouc — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sigma Olomouc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 4L across 7 road games this term (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game.
On current form, Plzen have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games).
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 46% versus Sigma Olomouc 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 54% | Sigma Olomouc 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 2.10 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.338 / defence 0.966 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.725 / defence 1.173. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.261. Plzen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.338 — their λ of 2.10 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 13 Plzen games / 13 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 65% | Draw 20% | Sigma Olomouc 15%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Sigma Olomouc 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 71% | Sigma Olomouc 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 65% | Draw 20% | Sigma Olomouc 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 51% | xG Plzen 2.10 / Sigma Olomouc 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.338 / def 0.966 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.725 / def 1.173 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Plzen (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.10
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Sigma Olomouc xG
51%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Plzen 0 - 0 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 65% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Plzen and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Sigma Olomouc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plzen and Sigma Olomouc in?
Plzen (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.34) and Sigma Olomouc's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 2.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
65%
1.53
20%
5.05
15%
6.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.10
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.98
0.88
Sigma Olomouc xG
1.53
65%
Home win
5.05
20%
Draw
6.77
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
12%
8.17
Win to Nil
27%
3.70
2%
55.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Plzen and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 2.10 expected goals for Plzen and 0.88 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plzen come into this having played 13 games, going 11W 0D 2L for 2.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.23 PPG from 13 outings (4W 4D 5L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Sigma Olomouc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.31 PPG clear of Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Plzen's home form reads 7W 0D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.54 PPG overall — Plzen are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 0.71 points per game from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sigma Olomouc's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plzen are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.69 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Sigma Olomouc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 11W 0D 2L in their last 13 games (2.54 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 4W 4D 5L in their last 13 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Plzen's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 3.00 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Plzen or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Plzen go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Plzen's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
1
Draws
2
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Sigma Olomouc?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 71%, Sigma Olomouc 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Plzen and 43% for Sigma Olomouc. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sigma Olomouc in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Sigma Olomouc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Plzen's games and 43% of Sigma Olomouc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Plzen's matches and 43% of Sigma Olomouc's.
Do Plzen and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Plzen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 14, as Plzen and Sigma Olomouc drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 2.10 xG and Sigma Olomouc 0.88 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Plzen fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Sigma Olomouc landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.34 / defence 0.97 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.72 / defence 1.17, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 65% | Draw 20% | Sigma Olomouc 15%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 54%, Sigma Olomouc 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.54 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.57 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.