Plzen 1-3 Sigma Olomouc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plzen at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plzen host Sigma Olomouc at Doosan Aréna in Czech Liga, Championship Round - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 5W 3D 2L at Doosan Aréna — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Plzen are significantly better at Doosan Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Sigma Olomouc — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sigma Olomouc's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Plzen at 1.00 PPG versus Sigma Olomouc's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Plzen have won 1, Sigma Olomouc 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Plzen in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc in-play and half-time data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 51% versus Sigma Olomouc 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 55% | Sigma Olomouc 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.64 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.090 / defence 0.922 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.989 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.251. Data: 60 Plzen games / 60 Sigma Olomouc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 47% | Draw 27% | Sigma Olomouc 25%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Sigma Olomouc 4.00. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 80% | Sigma Olomouc 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 47% | Draw 27% | Sigma Olomouc 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Plzen 1.64 / Sigma Olomouc 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.090 / def 0.922 | Sigma Olomouc attack 0.989 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Plzen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Sigma Olomouc xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc kick off?
Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Plzen 1 - 3 Sigma Olomouc.
Where is Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc part of?
Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 47% chance of winning, Sigma Olomouc a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Plzen and Sigma Olomouc will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Sigma Olomouc?
Record (2 meetings): Plzen 1W | Draws 1 | Sigma Olomouc 0W.
What form are Plzen and Sigma Olomouc in?
Plzen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Sigma Olomouc (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.09) and Sigma Olomouc's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sigma Olomouc's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.66
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.77
1.14
Sigma Olomouc xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
15%
6.59
5%
20.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Plzen and Sigma Olomouc expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Plzen and 1.14 for Sigma Olomouc, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plzen come into this having played 65 games, going 42W 14D 9L for 2.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-D.
On the other side, Sigma Olomouc sit at 1.31 PPG from 65 outings (21W 22D 22L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Sigma Olomouc — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Plzen's home form reads 24W 5D 3L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Sigma Olomouc have taken 1.16 points per game from 32 outings (9W 10D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plzen are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Sigma Olomouc are on 1.38 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Current Season
Sigma Olomouc
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Sigma Olomouc in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 42W 14D 9L in their last 65 games (2.15 PPG), while Sigma Olomouc have gone 21W 22D 22L in their last 65 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Sigma Olomouc away?
Plzen's home record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.41 PPG; Sigma Olomouc away: 1.16 PPG.
Have Plzen or Sigma Olomouc been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Sigma Olomouc in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Plzen go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Plzen's record when hosting Sigma Olomouc specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
1
Draws
2
Sigma Olomouc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Sigma Olomouc?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, Sigma Olomouc have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Sigma Olomouc last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Sigma Olomouc 1-2 Plzen.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Sigma Olomouc?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 69% of the time.
Sigma Olomouc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 50%, Sigma Olomouc 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Plzen) and 47% (Sigma Olomouc). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Sigma Olomouc in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Sigma Olomouc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Sigma Olomouc?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Plzen's recent matches and 44% of Sigma Olomouc's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Sigma Olomouc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Plzen's matches and 47% of Sigma Olomouc's.
Do Plzen and Sigma Olomouc tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Sigma Olomouc in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sigma Olomouc cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Plzen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sigma Olomouc beat Plzen 1-3 at Doosan Aréna, Championship Round - 2, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.64 xG and Sigma Olomouc 1.14 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sigma Olomouc outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.09 / defence 0.92 against Sigma Olomouc attack 0.99 / defence 0.90, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 47% | Draw 27% | Sigma Olomouc 25%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Sigma Olomouc win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 55%, Sigma Olomouc 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Sigma Olomouc's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Sigma Olomouc winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sigma Olomouc (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.