Plzen 3-0 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Plzen (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Plzen face Mlada Boleslav.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Championship Round - 1 as Plzen welcome Mlada Boleslav to Doosan Aréna. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plzen stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 6W 1D 3L at Doosan Aréna — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Doosan Aréna.
Mlada Boleslav — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Mlada Boleslav's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Plzen are in the better shape of the two on current Czech Liga data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Plzen: 3 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Mlada Boleslav, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Plzen a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Plzen in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Mlada Boleslav in-play tendencies (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 58% versus Mlada Boleslav 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 63% | Mlada Boleslav 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.62 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.280 / defence 0.784 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.939 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.289. Plzen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — their λ of 1.62 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Plzen's defence rating of 0.784 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Plzen games / 60 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 52% | Draw 27% | Mlada Boleslav 21%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | Mlada Boleslav 4.76. Plzen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Plzen 40% | Mlada Boleslav 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 52% | Draw 27% | Mlada Boleslav 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Plzen 1.62 / Mlada Boleslav 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.280 / def 0.784 | Mlada Boleslav attack 0.939 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Plzen (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Mlada Boleslav xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Plzen 3 - 0 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 52% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Plzen and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (5 meetings): Plzen 3W | Draws 2 | Mlada Boleslav 0W.
What form are Plzen and Mlada Boleslav in?
Plzen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Plzen's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.62. The same calculation in reverse, Mlada Boleslav's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.9%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
52%
1.93
27%
3.67
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.56
0.95
Mlada Boleslav xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
4%
24.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Plzen and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Plzen and 0.95 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen come into this having played 62 games, going 35W 11D 16L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Mlada Boleslav sit at 1.32 PPG from 62 outings (21W 19D 22L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Plzen's home form reads 18W 5D 8L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Mlada Boleslav have taken 1.13 points per game from 31 outings (9W 8D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.44 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mlada Boleslav in 61%.
Last 62 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Current Season
Mlada Boleslav
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 35W 11D 16L in their last 62 games (1.87 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 21W 19D 22L in their last 62 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Plzen's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 1.90 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Plzen or Mlada Boleslav been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Mlada Boleslav in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plzen and Mlada Boleslav runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Aug 2025, when Plzen won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Mlada Boleslav specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
3
Draws
0
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, Mlada Boleslav have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Plzen 2-1 Mlada Boleslav.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Mlada Boleslav?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 58%, Mlada Boleslav 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Plzen) and 52% (Mlada Boleslav). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Mlada Boleslav in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Mlada Boleslav?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Plzen's games and 55% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Plzen's matches and 52% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Plzen and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Mlada Boleslav.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Mlada Boleslav 3-0 at Doosan Aréna, Championship Round - 1, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.62 xG and Mlada Boleslav 0.95 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mlada Boleslav landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.28 / defence 0.78 against Mlada Boleslav attack 0.94 / defence 0.83, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 52% | Draw 27% | Mlada Boleslav 21%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 63%, Mlada Boleslav 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.