Plzen 1-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Hradec Králové encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hradec Králové make the trip to Doosan Aréna to face Plzen in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 February 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Plzen's overall Czech Liga record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Doosan Aréna, Plzen have gone 9W 1D 0L this season (10 games, 2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Doosan Aréna. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Plzen are significantly better at Doosan Aréna than their overall form suggests.
Hradec Králové (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hradec Králové, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hradec Králové's away record: 2W 2D 5L from 9 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.89 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Plzen. A 1.00 PPG lead over Hradec Králové (2.30 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Plzen half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Hradec Králové half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 42% versus Hradec Králové 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 53% | Hradec Králové 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 2.24 xG and Hradec Králové 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.329 / defence 0.882 | Hradec Králové attack 0.847 / defence 1.331. League average goals — home 1.267 / away 1.269. Plzen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — their λ of 2.24 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Hradec Králové bring a strong defensive rating of 1.331 — this is suppressing Plzen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Plzen games / 19 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 67% | Draw 19% | Hradec Králové 15%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.49 | Draw 5.26 | Hradec Králové 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plzen at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Plzen 50% | Hradec Králové 56%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 67% | Draw 19% | Hradec Králové 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 55% | xG Plzen 2.24 / Hradec Králové 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.329 / def 0.882 | Hradec Králové attack 0.847 / def 1.331 | league avg home 1.267 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Plzen (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.24
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Hradec Králové xG
55%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Plzen vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Hradec Králové?
Plzen 1 - 0 Hradec Králové.
Where is Plzen vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Hradec Králové part of?
Plzen vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 67% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 15% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Plzen and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Hradec Králové?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plzen and Hradec Králové in?
Plzen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Hradec Králové (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Plzen's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Hradec Králové's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.24. Flip it around — Hradec Králové's attack (0.85x) against Plzen's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
67%
1.50
19%
5.32
15%
6.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Plzen xG
Total xG
3.19
0.95
Hradec Králové xG
1.50
67%
Home win
5.32
19%
Draw
6.85
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
11%
9.39
Win to Nil
26%
3.87
2%
64.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Plzen and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Plzen and 0.95 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Hradec Králové?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Plzen have picked up 2.47 PPG on a 15W 2D 2L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hradec Králové's form line: 6W 7D 6L from 19 games, 1.32 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Hradec Králové is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 1.15 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hradec Králové.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Plzen have posted 2.78 PPG from 9 outings (8W 1D 0L).
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Plzen are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.26 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
Hradec Králové
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 15W 2D 2L in their last 19 games (2.47 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 6W 7D 6L in their last 19 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Hradec Králové away?
Plzen's home record (2.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.78 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Plzen or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Plzen won 0-3 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plzen have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Plzen
3
Draws
1
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 6, Hradec Králové have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Plzen 3-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Hradec Králové?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 44%, Hradec Králové 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Plzen and 56% for Hradec Králové. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Plzen's recent matches and 56% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Plzen's matches and 56% of Hradec Králové's.
Do Plzen and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plzen edge out Hradec Králové 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Hradec Králové 1-0 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 20, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 2.24 xG and Hradec Králové 0.95 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Plzen fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Hradec Králové landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.33 / defence 0.88 against Hradec Králové attack 0.85 / defence 1.33, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 67% | Draw 19% | Hradec Králové 15%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 53%, Hradec Králové 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 1.32. Form held, and they took the win. Plzen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.