Plzen 5-0 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Plzen (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Plzen face České Budějovice.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 18 as Plzen welcome České Budějovice to Doosan Aréna. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 December 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Plzen have posted 5W 1D 4L at Doosan Aréna — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, České Budějovice stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Plzen have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Plzen register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, České Budějovice in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Plzen hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 5 previous encounters compared to 0 for České Budějovice, with 0 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 5–2 with Plzen winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Plzen and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Plzen in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
České Budějovice in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 62% versus České Budějovice 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 65% | České Budějovice 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 2.19 xG and České Budějovice 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.174 / defence 1.271 | České Budějovice attack 0.739 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.240. Data: 46 Plzen games / 46 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 61% | Draw 20% | České Budějovice 19%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | České Budějovice 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.19 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 70% | České Budějovice 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Dec 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 61% | Draw 20% | České Budějovice 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 61% | xG Plzen 2.19 / České Budějovice 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.174 / def 1.271 | České Budějovice attack 0.739 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Plzen (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.17
České Budějovice xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs České Budějovice kick off?
Plzen vs České Budějovice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 December 2023 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs České Budějovice?
Plzen 5 - 0 České Budějovice.
Where is Plzen vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs České Budějovice part of?
Plzen vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 61% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 19% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Plzen and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and České Budějovice?
Record (5 meetings): Plzen 5W | Draws 0 | České Budějovice 0W.
What form are Plzen and České Budějovice in?
Plzen (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. České Budějovice (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Plzen's attack at 1.17x the league average against České Budějovice's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 2.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, České Budějovice's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
61%
1.65
20%
5.00
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Plzen xG
Total xG
3.35
1.17
České Budějovice xG
1.65
61%
Home win
5.00
20%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
11%
8.90
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
2%
45.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Plzen and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Plzen and 1.17 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs České Budějovice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plzen come into this having played 48 games, going 25W 8D 15L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-W. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, České Budějovice sit at 1.00 PPG from 48 outings (14W 6D 28L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of České Budějovice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Plzen's home form reads 13W 4D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return.
Away from home, České Budějovice have taken 0.67 points per game from 24 outings (4W 4D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Plzen are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.10 scored and 1.96 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plzen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 25W 8D 15L in their last 48 games (1.73 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 14W 6D 28L in their last 48 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or České Budějovice away?
Plzen's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 1.79 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plzen and České Budějovice runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Dec 2023, when Plzen won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting České Budějovice specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Plzen
0
Draws
0
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and České Budějovice?
From 8 meetings on record, Plzen have won 8, České Budějovice have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 15 December 2024, when Plzen 7-2 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and České Budějovice?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 67%, České Budějovice 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Plzen and 62% for České Budějovice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play České Budějovice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Plzen's games and 58% of České Budějovice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Plzen vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Plzen's matches and 62% of České Budějovice's.
Do Plzen and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plzen run riot with a 5-0 hammering of České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat České Budějovice 5-0 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 2.19 xG and České Budějovice 1.17 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. České Budějovice landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.17 / defence 1.27 against České Budějovice attack 0.74 / defence 1.18, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 61% | Draw 20% | České Budějovice 19%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 65%, České Budějovice 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
České Budějovice's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.