Plzen 4-2 Dukla Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plzen vs Dukla Praha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Plzen and Dukla Praha meet at Doosan Aréna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 April 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Plzen have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Plzen's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Doosan Aréna this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dukla Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Dukla Praha's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Plzen's favour (1.90 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Plzen 1W, Dukla Praha 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2024, ended 3–1 with Plzen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Plzen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Dukla Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 48% versus Dukla Praha 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 48% | Dukla Praha 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.57 xG and Dukla Praha 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.262 / defence 0.966 | Dukla Praha attack 0.666 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.207. Plzen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.262 — their λ of 1.57 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 59 Plzen games / 29 Dukla Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 55% | Draw 27% | Dukla Praha 17%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Dukla Praha 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Plzen (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plzen 50% | Dukla Praha 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Dukla Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Doosan Aréna • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 55% | Draw 27% | Dukla Praha 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 44% | xG Plzen 1.57 / Dukla Praha 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.262 / def 0.966 | Dukla Praha attack 0.666 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.207 • Poisson stance: Plzen (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Dukla Praha xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Dukla Praha kick off?
Plzen vs Dukla Praha kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Doosan Aréna.
What was the final score in Plzen vs Dukla Praha?
Plzen 4 - 2 Dukla Praha.
Where is Plzen vs Dukla Praha being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Aréna.
What competition is Plzen vs Dukla Praha part of?
Plzen vs Dukla Praha is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Dukla Praha?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 55% chance of winning, Dukla Praha a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Dukla Praha?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Plzen and Dukla Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Dukla Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Dukla Praha?
Record (1 meetings): Plzen 1W | Draws 0 | Dukla Praha 0W.
What form are Plzen and Dukla Praha in?
Plzen (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Dukla Praha (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Plzen's attack at 1.26x the league average against Dukla Praha's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.57 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dukla Praha's attack (0.67x) against Plzen's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 59/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 2-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
55%
1.81
27%
3.68
17%
5.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.35
0.78
Dukla Praha xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
5.72
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
4%
27.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 11.7 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Dukla Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Plzen and Dukla Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Plzen and 0.78 for Dukla Praha, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Dukla Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Plzen's recent record stands at 19W 5D 5L from 29 games, a 2.14 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Dukla Praha, meanwhile, have gone 5W 9D 15L across 29 games — 0.83 PPG, with D-W-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Plzen by 1.31 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dukla Praha heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Plzen have managed 10W 2D 2L from 14 games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dukla Praha's away record stands at 2W 5D 7L across 14 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Plzen are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Dukla Praha are on 0.72 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Current Season
Dukla Praha
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Dukla Praha in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 19W 5D 5L in their last 29 games (2.14 PPG), while Dukla Praha have gone 5W 9D 15L in their last 29 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Dukla Praha away?
Plzen's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 2.29 PPG; Dukla Praha away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Plzen or Dukla Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Dukla Praha in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 14 December 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plzen have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dukla Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Plzen
0
Draws
1
Dukla Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Dukla Praha?
From 4 meetings on record, Plzen have won 3, Dukla Praha have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Dukla Praha last play each other?
They last met on 14 December 2025, when Plzen 2-0 Dukla Praha.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Dukla Praha?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Dukla Praha see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 50%, Dukla Praha 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Plzen) and 36% (Dukla Praha).
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Dukla Praha in 36%; Dukla Praha in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Dukla Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Dukla Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Plzen's recent matches and 36% of Dukla Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Dukla Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Plzen's recent games and 36% of Dukla Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and Dukla Praha tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Dukla Praha in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plzen cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Dukla Praha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Dukla Praha 4-2 at Doosan Aréna, Regular Season - 30, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plzen 1.57 xG and Dukla Praha 0.78 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Plzen beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dukla Praha outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plzen attack 1.26 / defence 0.97 against Dukla Praha attack 0.67 / defence 0.93, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plzen 55% | Draw 27% | Dukla Praha 17%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plzen 48%, Dukla Praha 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plzen's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Dukla Praha's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 0.83. Form held, and they took the win. Plzen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.93 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dukla Praha (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.