Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians 1905 at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 29 as Plzen welcome Bohemians 1905 to Doosan Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 April 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plzen stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Plzen have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plzen at Doosan Arena this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Bohemians 1905 have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Bohemians 1905 have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bohemians 1905 away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Plzen 1.60 PPG, Bohemians 1905 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Plzen have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 10 past contests while Bohemians 1905 have managed just 2 wins.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 2–0 with Plzen winning.
The historical record gives Plzen a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Plzen in-play tendencies (38 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bohemians 1905 in-play tendencies (38 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plzen 45% versus Bohemians 1905 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plzen 55% | Bohemians 1905 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plzen 1.41 xG and Bohemians 1905 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plzen attack 1.008 / defence 1.104 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.040 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.360. Data: 35 Plzen games / 35 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plzen 35% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 41%. Fair-value odds: Plzen 2.86 | Draw 4.17 | Bohemians 1905 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians 1905 are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians 1905 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Plzen 60% | Bohemians 1905 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Doosan Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Apr 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plzen 35% | Draw 24% | Bohemians 1905 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Plzen 1.41 / Bohemians 1905 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Plzen attack 1.008 / def 1.104 | Bohemians 1905 attack 1.040 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Bohemians 1905 (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Plzen xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Bohemians 1905 xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 April 2027 at Doosan Arena.
Where is Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at Doosan Arena.
What competition is Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Plzen a 35% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 41% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bohemians 1905 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Plzen and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Bohemians 1905?
Record (10 meetings): Plzen 7W | Draws 1 | Bohemians 1905 2W.
What form are Plzen and Bohemians 1905 in?
Plzen (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Plzen's attack rating (1.01) and Bohemians 1905's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bohemians 1905's attack versus Plzen's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians 1905 Win
35%
2.89
24%
4.11
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Plzen xG
Total xG
2.98
1.56
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.89
35%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
7%
13.79
10%
10.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Plzen and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Plzen and 1.56 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Plzen vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Plzen come into this having played 38 games, going 19W 10D 9L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Plzen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bohemians 1905 sit at 1.18 PPG from 38 outings (12W 9D 17L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bohemians 1905, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plzen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Plzen's home form reads 11W 5D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Bohemians 1905 have taken 1.25 points per game from 20 outings (7W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plzen are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 0.92 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plzen
Early Season
Bohemians 1905
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plzen and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Plzen have gone 19W 10D 9L in their last 38 games (1.76 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plzen at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Plzen's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plzen at home: 1.90 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Plzen or Bohemians 1905 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plzen have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Bohemians 1905 in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Plzen have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Nov 2021, when Plzen won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Plzen's record when hosting Bohemians 1905 specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Plzen
1
Draws
2
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plzen and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Plzen have won 7, Bohemians 1905 have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plzen and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Plzen 2-0 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Plzen and Bohemians 1905?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plzen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plzen 55%, Bohemians 1905 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Plzen) and 50% (Bohemians 1905).
On the defensive side: Plzen keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Bohemians 1905 in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plzen home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plzen play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Plzen's recent matches and 45% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plzen vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Plzen's recent games and 50% of Bohemians 1905's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plzen and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Plzen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.