Pardubice 0-2 Sparta Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pardubice face Sparta Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sparta Praha make the trip to CFIG Arena to face Pardubice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pardubice have posted 3W 2D 5L at CFIG Arena — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Sparta Praha have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Praha away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.10 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sparta Praha are 1.50 PPG clear of Pardubice in recent Czech Liga fixtures (2.80 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Sparta Praha hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 3 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Oct 2022, ended 2–5 with Sparta Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sparta Praha have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 5.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Pardubice — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 55% versus Sparta Praha 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 57% | Sparta Praha 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.12 xG and Sparta Praha 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.890 / defence 1.027 | Sparta Praha attack 1.521 / defence 0.799. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.254. Sparta Praha's defence strength of 0.799 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sparta Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.521 — the away xG of 1.96 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Pardubice games / 55 Sparta Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 20% | Draw 24% | Sparta Praha 56%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 5.00 | Draw 4.17 | Sparta Praha 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sparta Praha are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pardubice 50% | Sparta Praha 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Sparta Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 20% | Draw 24% | Sparta Praha 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Pardubice 1.12 / Sparta Praha 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.890 / def 1.027 | Sparta Praha attack 1.521 / def 0.799 | league avg home 1.581 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Sparta Praha xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Sparta Praha kick off?
Pardubice vs Sparta Praha kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Sparta Praha?
Pardubice 0 - 2 Sparta Praha.
Where is Pardubice vs Sparta Praha being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Sparta Praha part of?
Pardubice vs Sparta Praha is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Sparta Praha?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 20% chance of winning, Sparta Praha a 56% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Sparta Praha?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Pardubice and Sparta Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Sparta Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Sparta Praha?
Record (3 meetings): Pardubice 0W | Draws 0 | Sparta Praha 3W.
What form are Pardubice and Sparta Praha in?
Pardubice (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Sparta Praha (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.89x the league average against Sparta Praha's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sparta Praha's attack (1.52x) against Pardubice's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.96.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
20%
4.89
24%
4.20
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Pardubice xG
Total xG
3.08
1.96
Sparta Praha xG
4.89
20%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
14%
7.09
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
3%
34.70
18%
5.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Sparta Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Sparta Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.96 for Sparta Praha, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Sparta Praha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Pardubice have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 15W 14D 31L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha's form line: 39W 13D 8L from 60 games, 2.17 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.19 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pardubice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pardubice have posted 1.10 PPG from 29 outings (7W 11D 11L).
On the road, Sparta Praha have gone 16W 7D 6L from 29 away games — 1.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pardubice are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.97 conceded per game recently; Sparta Praha are on 2.18 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Sparta Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Sparta Praha in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 15W 14D 31L in their last 60 games (0.98 PPG), while Sparta Praha have gone 39W 13D 8L in their last 60 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Sparta Praha away?
Sparta Praha's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.10 PPG; Sparta Praha away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Sparta Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Sparta Praha in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 5-2 on 15 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pardubice
0
Draws
9
Sparta Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Sparta Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 1, Sparta Praha have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Sparta Praha last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when Sparta Praha 2-4 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Sparta Praha?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 48%, Sparta Praha 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Pardubice) and 62% (Sparta Praha).
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha in 34%; Pardubice have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Sparta Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Sparta Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Pardubice's recent matches and 48% of Sparta Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Sparta Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Pardubice's recent games and 62% of Sparta Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Sparta Praha tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Sparta Praha in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Praha cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Pardubice 0-2 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.12 xG and Sparta Praha 1.96 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Pardubice fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.89 / defence 1.03 against Sparta Praha attack 1.52 / defence 0.80, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 20% | Draw 24% | Sparta Praha 56%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 57%, Sparta Praha 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sparta Praha's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 0.98. That form edge translated into the three points. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.