Pardubice 1-1 Slavia Praha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Slavia Praha (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pardubice face Slavia Praha.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pardubice and Slavia Praha meet at Stadion Arnosta Kostala in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pardubice have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadion Arnosta Kostala — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Arnosta Kostala this season.
Slavia Praha have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Slavia Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slavia Praha have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Slavia Praha arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Pardubice register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Slavia Praha in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across the last 8 meetings, Slavia Praha have the stronger historical record — 8 wins to Pardubice's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with Slavia Praha winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Slavia Praha have won 8 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Pardubice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Slavia Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 46% versus Slavia Praha 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 46% | Slavia Praha 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.03 xG and Slavia Praha 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.840 / defence 1.104 | Slavia Praha attack 1.235 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.280. Slavia Praha have an above-average attack strength of 1.235 — the away xG of 1.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Pardubice games / 49 Slavia Praha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 22% | Draw 24% | Slavia Praha 54%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Slavia Praha 1.85. Slavia Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Slavia Praha as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Slavia Praha if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 70% | Slavia Praha 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Slavia Praha | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion Arnosta Kostala • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 22% | Draw 24% | Slavia Praha 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG Pardubice 1.03 / Slavia Praha 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.840 / def 1.104 | Slavia Praha attack 1.235 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Slavia Praha (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Slavia Praha xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Slavia Praha kick off?
Pardubice vs Slavia Praha kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Slavia Praha?
Pardubice 1 - 1 Slavia Praha.
Where is Pardubice vs Slavia Praha being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What competition is Pardubice vs Slavia Praha part of?
Pardubice vs Slavia Praha is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Slavia Praha?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 22% chance of winning, Slavia Praha a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Slavia Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Slavia Praha?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Pardubice and Slavia Praha will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Slavia Praha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Slavia Praha?
Record (8 meetings): Pardubice 0W | Draws 0 | Slavia Praha 8W.
What form are Pardubice and Slavia Praha in?
Pardubice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Slavia Praha (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Pardubice's attack rating (0.84) and Slavia Praha's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.03 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slavia Praha's attack (1.24x) against Pardubice's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slavia Praha Win
22%
4.48
24%
4.24
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.78
1.75
Slavia Praha xG
4.48
22%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
36%
2.81
Win to Nil
4%
25.70
19%
5.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Slavia Praha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Slavia Praha expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.75 for Slavia Praha, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Slavia Praha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pardubice come into this having played 54 games, going 12W 13D 29L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slavia Praha sit at 2.50 PPG from 54 outings (42W 9D 3L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Slavia Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Slavia Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.59 PPG clear of Pardubice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Pardubice's home form reads 9W 7D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.91 PPG overall — Pardubice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Slavia Praha have taken 2.12 points per game from 26 outings (16W 7D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Slavia Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pardubice are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Slavia Praha are on 2.19 scored and 0.63 conceded.
Defensively: Slavia Praha in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Slavia Praha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Slavia Praha in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 12W 13D 29L in their last 54 games (0.91 PPG), while Slavia Praha have gone 42W 9D 3L in their last 54 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Slavia Praha away?
Slavia Praha's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.31 PPG; Slavia Praha away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Slavia Praha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Slavia Praha in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Slavia Praha won 7-0 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Slavia Praha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Pardubice
1
Draws
9
Slavia Praha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Slavia Praha?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 0, Slavia Praha have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Slavia Praha last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Slavia Praha 2-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Slavia Praha?
Slavia Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pardubice see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Slavia Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 50%, Slavia Praha 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Pardubice) and 42% (Slavia Praha).
On the defensive side: Slavia Praha in 50%; Pardubice have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Slavia Praha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Slavia Praha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Pardubice's recent matches and 42% of Slavia Praha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Slavia Praha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Pardubice's recent games and 42% of Slavia Praha's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Slavia Praha tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Slavia Praha in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pardubice and Slavia Praha share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Regular Season - 20, as Pardubice and Slavia Praha drew 1-1 in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.03 xG and Slavia Praha 1.75 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.84 / defence 1.10 against Slavia Praha attack 1.24 / defence 0.89, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 22% | Draw 24% | Slavia Praha 54%, with Slavia Praha to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 46%, Slavia Praha 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Slavia Praha's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Slavia Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Slavia Praha (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.