Pardubice 0-1 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pardubice at 44%, yet in-form Plzen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pardubice vs Plzen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pardubice host Plzen at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Pardubice have gone 1W 3D 4L from 8 outings — a 0.75 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.88 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Ďolíček, Pardubice have gone 1W 3D 0L this season (4 games, 1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.75 — Pardubice are significantly better at Stadion Ďolíček than their overall form suggests.
Plzen — All Games: 7W 0D 1L from 8 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.62 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 0.88. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Plzen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plzen's away record: 2W 0D 1L from 3 road trips in Czech Liga this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.62 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Plzen — 1.87 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.62 vs 0.75). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Plzen in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pardubice 75% and Plzen 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Pardubice 75% | Plzen 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.43 xG and Plzen 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 1.102 / defence 1.188 | Plzen attack 0.748 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.263. Data: 8 Pardubice games / 8 Plzen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 44% | Draw 26% | Plzen 30%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Plzen 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pardubice at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Plzen (2.62 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pardubice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Pardubice 75% | Plzen 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 44% | Draw 26% | Plzen 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Pardubice 1.43 / Plzen 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 1.102 / def 1.188 | Plzen attack 0.748 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Plzen xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Plzen kick off?
Pardubice vs Plzen kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Plzen?
Pardubice 0 - 1 Plzen.
Where is Pardubice vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Pardubice vs Plzen part of?
Pardubice vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 44% chance of winning, Plzen a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Pardubice and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Plzen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pardubice and Plzen in?
Pardubice (all comps): 1W-3D-4L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.88 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Plzen (all comps): 7W-0D-1L in 8 | 2.62 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 0.88 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Pardubice's attack rating (1.10) and Plzen's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
44%
2.27
26%
3.80
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.55
1.12
Plzen xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
24%
4.16
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
7%
14.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.12 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 8 outings, Pardubice have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 1W 3D 4L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plzen's form line: 7W 0D 1L from 8 games, 2.62 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Plzen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 1.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pardubice.
Venue Form
On home soil, Pardubice have posted 1.67 PPG from 3 outings (1W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 0.75 PPG overall — Pardubice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Plzen have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plzen's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Pardubice are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.75 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Plzen in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Plzen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Plzen in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 games (0.75 PPG), while Plzen have gone 7W 0D 1L in their last 8 (2.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.67 PPG; Plzen away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2022, when Plzen won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pardubice's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Pardubice
2
Draws
7
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 1, Plzen have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Plzen 0-1 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Plzen see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 67%, Plzen 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Pardubice) and 33% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Pardubice keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Plzen in 33%; Plzen in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Pardubice's recent matches and 33% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Pardubice's recent games and 33% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Plzen tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Plzen in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Plzen defy the odds to beat Pardubice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plzen beat Pardubice 0-1 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.43 xG and Plzen 1.12 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pardubice fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 1.10 / defence 1.19 against Plzen attack 0.75 / defence 0.98, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 44% | Draw 26% | Plzen 30%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Plzen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 75%, Plzen 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Plzen's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.62 PPG against 0.75. Form held, and they took the win. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.