Pardubice 1-3 Karviná – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Pardubice (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pardubice face Karviná.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pardubice and Karviná meet at Stadion Arnosta Kostala in Czech Liga, Semi-finals. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Pardubice's home record at Stadion Arnosta Kostala: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Karviná have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Karviná's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Pardubice. A 1.20 PPG lead over Karviná (1.90 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Pardubice, who have won 7 of the last 9 meetings against Karviná — a 0D 2W return for the visitors.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Pardubice winning.
The historical record gives Pardubice a meaningful edge here — 7 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Pardubice half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Karviná half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 49% versus Karviná 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 44% | Karviná 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.50 xG and Karviná 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.984 / defence 1.038 | Karviná attack 1.027 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.200. Data: 60 Pardubice games / 60 Karviná games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 41% | Draw 27% | Karviná 31%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Karviná 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pardubice are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pardubice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 70% | Karviná 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Karviná | Competition: Czech Liga, Semi-finals | Venue: Stadion Arnosta Kostala • Kick-off: Sunday 10 May 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 41% | Draw 27% | Karviná 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Pardubice 1.50 / Karviná 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.984 / def 1.038 | Karviná attack 1.027 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Pardubice (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Karviná xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Karviná kick off?
Pardubice vs Karviná kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 May 2026 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Karviná?
Pardubice 1 - 3 Karviná.
Where is Pardubice vs Karviná being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Arnosta Kostala.
What competition is Pardubice vs Karviná part of?
Pardubice vs Karviná is a Semi-finals fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Karviná?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 41% chance of winning, Karviná a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pardubice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Karviná?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Pardubice and Karviná will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Karviná have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Karviná?
Record (9 meetings): Pardubice 7W | Draws 0 | Karviná 2W.
What form are Pardubice and Karviná in?
Pardubice (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Karviná (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.98x the league average against Karviná's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Karviná's attack (1.03x) against Pardubice's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pardubice Win
41%
2.41
27%
3.69
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.78
1.28
Karviná xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
12%
8.67
7%
14.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Karviná?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Karviná expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.28 for Karviná, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Karviná?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pardubice come into this having played 63 games, going 18W 15D 30L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Karviná sit at 1.27 PPG from 63 outings (23W 11D 29L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Pardubice against 1.27 for Karviná. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pardubice's home form reads 11W 9D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Karviná have taken 1.32 points per game from 31 outings (12W 5D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Pardubice are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Karviná are on 1.33 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Karviná in 62%.
Last 63 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Current Season
Karviná
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Karviná in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 18W 15D 30L in their last 63 games (1.10 PPG), while Karviná have gone 23W 11D 29L in their last 63 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Karviná away?
Pardubice's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.35 PPG; Karviná away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pardubice won 4-0 on 19 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pardubice have gone 4W 0D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Karviná — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Pardubice
0
Draws
3
Karviná
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Karviná?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 7, Karviná have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Karviná last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Pardubice 1-3 Karviná.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Karviná?
Pardubice have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pardubice see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Karviná are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 55%, Karviná 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Pardubice) and 74% (Karviná). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 29% of games; Karviná in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Karviná away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Karviná?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Pardubice's games and 68% of Karviná's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pardubice vs Karviná usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Pardubice's matches and 74% of Karviná's.
Do Pardubice and Karviná tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Karviná in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Karviná cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Karviná beat Pardubice 1-3 at Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Semi-finals, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.50 xG and Karviná 1.28 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Karviná outscored their 1.28 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.98 / defence 1.04 against Karviná attack 1.03 / defence 1.10, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 41% | Draw 27% | Karviná 31%, with Pardubice to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Karviná win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 44%, Karviná 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Karviná's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pardubice 1.10 PPG, Karviná 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Karviná win broke the near-deadlock. Pardubice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Karviná (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.