Pardubice 0-3 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baník Ostrava at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pardubice host Baník Ostrava at Stadion Ďolíček in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 4L across 9 games at Stadion Ďolíček this term (0.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 2.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 2L across 9 road games this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Baník Ostrava are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (17 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Baník Ostrava in-play tendencies (17 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pardubice 71% and Baník Ostrava 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Pardubice 71% | Baník Ostrava 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 1.15 xG and Baník Ostrava 2.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.749 / defence 1.761 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.961 / defence 1.099. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.299. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 17 Pardubice games / 17 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 19% | Draw 20% | Baník Ostrava 61%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 5.26 | Draw 5.00 | Baník Ostrava 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Baník Ostrava (61%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.15 / 2.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baník Ostrava as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.34 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pardubice 56% | Baník Ostrava 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadion Ďolíček • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 19% | Draw 20% | Baník Ostrava 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 61% | xG Pardubice 1.15 / Baník Ostrava 2.20 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.749 / def 1.761 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.961 / def 1.099 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
2.20
Baník Ostrava xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Stadion Ďolíček.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Pardubice 0 - 3 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Ďolíček.
What competition is Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 19% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 61% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Pardubice and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pardubice and Baník Ostrava in?
Pardubice (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.75x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 2.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
19%
5.30
20%
5.04
61%
1.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
0 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Pardubice xG
Total xG
3.34
2.20
Baník Ostrava xG
5.30
19%
Home win
5.04
20%
Draw
1.63
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
11%
9.01
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
2%
47.73
19%
5.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 7.8 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Pardubice and 2.20 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pardubice's recent record stands at 3W 5D 9L from 17 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 9W 5D 3L across 17 games — 1.88 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Baník Ostrava by 1.06 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pardubice heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 1W 4D 4L from 9 games — 0.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baník Ostrava's away record stands at 4W 3D 2L across 9 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baník Ostrava come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Pardubice are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 2.06 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pardubice have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Baník Ostrava in 76%.
Last 17 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 3W 5D 9L in their last 17 games (0.82 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 9W 5D 3L in their last 17 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Baník Ostrava's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 0.78 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2021, when Baník Ostrava won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pardubice's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
2
Draws
6
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 2, Baník Ostrava have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when Baník Ostrava 1-4 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Baník Ostrava see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 56%, Baník Ostrava 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Pardubice and 56% for Baník Ostrava. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Baník Ostrava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Pardubice's games and 67% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Pardubice's matches and 56% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Pardubice and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Baník Ostrava run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Pardubice 0-3 at Stadion Ďolíček, Regular Season - 18, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 1.15 xG and Baník Ostrava 2.20 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Pardubice fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Baník Ostrava outscored their 2.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.75 / defence 1.76 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.96 / defence 1.10, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 19% | Draw 20% | Baník Ostrava 61%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 71%, Baník Ostrava 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 74%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (17 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (17 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.82. That form edge translated into the three points. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.