Pardubice 2-3 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Baník Ostrava (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Pardubice face Baník Ostrava.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pardubice host Baník Ostrava at CFIG Arena in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 26 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pardubice stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pardubice's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at CFIG Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Pardubice are significantly better at CFIG Arena than their overall form suggests.
Baník Ostrava — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Baník Ostrava's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Baník Ostrava are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Pardubice, 3 for Baník Ostrava and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with Baník Ostrava winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Pardubice in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Baník Ostrava in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pardubice 46% versus Baník Ostrava 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pardubice 44% | Baník Ostrava 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pardubice 0.95 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pardubice attack 0.741 / defence 0.979 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.920 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.263. Pardubice's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Pardubice games / 41 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pardubice 28% | Draw 34% | Baník Ostrava 38%. Fair-value odds: Pardubice 3.57 | Draw 2.94 | Baník Ostrava 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baník Ostrava as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Pardubice 40% | Baník Ostrava 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: CFIG Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pardubice 28% | Draw 34% | Baník Ostrava 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Pardubice 0.95 / Baník Ostrava 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Pardubice attack 0.741 / def 0.979 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.920 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Pardubice xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Baník Ostrava xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at CFIG Arena.
What was the final score in Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Pardubice 2 - 3 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at CFIG Arena.
What competition is Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Pardubice a 28% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 38% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Pardubice and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava?
Record (6 meetings): Pardubice 1W | Draws 2 | Baník Ostrava 3W.
What form are Pardubice and Baník Ostrava in?
Pardubice (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Pardubice's attack at 0.74x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Pardubice's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
28%
3.56
34%
2.92
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Pardubice xG
Total xG
2.09
1.14
Baník Ostrava xG
3.56
28%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
9%
11.09
15%
6.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 14.1 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Pardubice and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Pardubice and 1.14 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pardubice's recent record stands at 13W 8D 25L from 46 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Baník Ostrava, meanwhile, have gone 19W 10D 17L across 46 games — 1.46 PPG, with D-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Baník Ostrava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Baník Ostrava by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pardubice heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pardubice have managed 6W 5D 11L from 22 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baník Ostrava's away record stands at 9W 5D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.45 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Pardubice are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.50 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pardubice
Blended
Baník Ostrava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pardubice and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Pardubice have gone 13W 8D 25L in their last 46 games (1.02 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 19W 10D 17L in their last 46 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pardubice at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Baník Ostrava's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pardubice at home: 1.05 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Pardubice or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pardubice have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2021, when Baník Ostrava won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pardubice's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Pardubice
2
Draws
6
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Pardubice have won 2, Baník Ostrava have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Pardubice and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when Baník Ostrava 1-4 Pardubice.
Who has won more matches between Pardubice and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Baník Ostrava see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pardubice 46%, Baník Ostrava 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Pardubice) and 54% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Pardubice have failed to score in 41% of games; Baník Ostrava in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pardubice home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pardubice play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Pardubice's recent matches and 50% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pardubice vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Pardubice's recent games and 54% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pardubice and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Pardubice have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baník Ostrava edge out Pardubice 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Pardubice 2-3 at CFIG Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pardubice 0.95 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.14 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Pardubice beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Baník Ostrava outscored their 1.14 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pardubice attack 0.74 / defence 0.98 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.92 / defence 0.93, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pardubice 28% | Draw 34% | Baník Ostrava 38%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pardubice 44%, Baník Ostrava 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pardubice's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Pardubice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.